Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries
Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1211452109
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发表时间：
2012-08-28
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Heilig, Gerhard K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Raftery, Adrian E.;Li, Nan;Heilig, Gerhard K.
按年龄和性别分列的各国未来人口预测被广泛用于规划和研究。它们大多是确定性的，但也有对概率预测的广泛需求。我们为所有国家的概率人口预测提出了一种贝叶斯方法。利用联合国所有国家的人口数据，利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛估计的贝叶斯分层模型，对总生育率和男女出生时预期寿命进行概率预测。然后将这些数据转换为特定年龄的比率，并与队列成分预测模型相结合。这产生任何感兴趣的人口数量的概率预测。该方法以五个不同人口阶段、大洲和面积的国家为例进行了说明。利用1950 ~ 1990年的数据进行估计，并应用于1990 ~ 2010年的预测，验证了该方法的有效性。该方法在这一时期看来相当准确，而且校准得很好。结果表明，目前的联合国高和低变量大大低估了大约从2050年开始的老年人口数量的不确定性，低估了高生育率国家的不确定性，而高估了已完成人口转型且生育率已开始向更替水平恢复的国家（主要在欧洲）的不确定性。研究结果还表明，在未来几十年里，大多数国家的潜在抚养比（20-64岁人口与65岁以上人口的比例）几乎肯定会急剧下降。
Projections of countries' future populations, broken down by age and sex, are widely used for planning and research. They are mostly done deterministically, but there is a widespread need for probabilistic projections. We propose a Bayesian method for probabilistic population projections for all countries. The total fertility rate and female and male life expectancies at birth are projected probabilistically using Bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo using United Nations population data for all countries. These are then converted to age-specific rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of any population quantity of interest. The method is illustrated for five countries of different demographic stages, continents and sizes. The method is validated by an out of sample experiment in which data from 1950-1990 are used for estimation, and applied to predict 1990-2010. The method appears reasonably accurate and well calibrated for this period. The results suggest that the current United Nations high and low variants greatly underestimate uncertainty about the number of oldest old from about 2050 and that they underestimate uncertainty for high fertility countries and overstate uncertainty for countries that have completed the demographic transition and whose fertility has started to recover towards replacement level, mostly in Europe. The results also indicate that the potential support ratio (persons aged 20-64 per person aged 65+) will almost certainly decline dramatically in most countries over the coming decades.