Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population
Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2018.0259
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发表时间：
2019-06-24
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Pybus, Oliver G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hill, Sarah C.;Hansen, Rowena;Pybus, Oliver G.
了解高致病性禽流感病毒（HPAIV）在野鸟中的流行动态，对于指导有效的监测和控制措施至关重要。H5 HPAIV的传播在大的地理和时间尺度上得到了很好的表征。然而，关于野鸟中个别疫情的详细动态和人口统计资料很少，重要的流行病学参数仍然未知。我们提供了来自野生长寿鸟类（疣鼻天鹅;天鹅）的数据，这些鸟类在过去十年中经历了三次相关的H5 HPAIV爆发，特别是H5 N1（2007），H5 N8（2016）和H5 N6（2017）。详细的人口统计数据，并在爆发前后进行了密集的采样，因此，人口是非常适合探索自然流行病学，进化和生态学的HPAIV在野生鸟类。我们发现，关键的流行病学特征在多次暴发中保持显著一致，包括病毒入侵的时间和暴发持续时间，以及发病率中存在强烈的年龄结构，这可能源于免疫反应中的等效年龄结构。这些特征在一系列复杂的自然种群中爆发的可预测性是惊人的，有助于我们了解野生鸟类中的HPAIV。这篇文章是主题“模拟人类、动物和植物中的传染病爆发：方法和重要主题”的一部分。本期与随后的主题问题“模拟人类、动物和植物中的传染病爆发：流行病预测和控制”有关。
Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds.This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease out-breaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.