Avoidable impacts of ocean warming on marine primary production: Insights from the CESM ensembles
Avoidable impacts of ocean warming on marine primary production: Insights from the CESM ensembles
复制标题
海洋变暖对海洋初级生产可避免的影响：CESM 总体的见解
DOI：
10.1002/2016gb005528
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
K. Lindsay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Krumhardt;N. Lovenduski;M. Long;K. Lindsay
由于人为排放和气候变暖继续改变着地球环境，有必要强调可以通过缓解来避免的未来影响。在这里，我们使用在一切照旧的情况下运行的社区地球系统模型(CESM)的两个集合RCP 8.5和缓解情景RCP 4.5来确定人为变暖对海洋净初级生产力(NPP)的可避免的影响。我们强调使用集合，以便将海洋生产力的长期、人为趋势与内部变异性区分开来。20世纪全球综合海洋净初级生产力为55.7±1 pg C，大部分变化可归因于某些区域(例如赤道太平洋)。CESM预测表明，如果我们遵循RCP8.5，到2080年，全球海洋净初级生产力将下降∼4%，但在RCP4.5的情况下，仅下降2%。对全球变暖的反应包括补偿区域影响；净初级生产力在极地和赤道东太平洋水域增加，但在大西洋、西太平洋和印度洋减少。CESM模拟的两个主要浮游植物群体显示出不同的反应：硅藻减少了它们的NPP，而小型浮游植物NPP在21世纪中叶增加。从21世纪中叶到2080年，两种排放情景之间的NPP趋势有很大不同，主要是在大西洋盆地，因此如果我们遵循RCP 4.5而不是RCP 8.5，对这里的影响是“可以避免的”。相比之下，全球范围内以及太平洋、印度洋盆地和南大洋大部分地区的净初级生产力的变化在强迫情景之间是无法区分的。
As anthropogenic emissions and warming continue to alter Earth's environment, it is essential to highlight future impacts that can be avoided through mitigation. Here we use two ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) run under the business‐as‐usual scenario, RCP 8.5, and the mitigation scenario, RCP 4.5, to identify avoidable impacts of anthropogenic warming on marine net primary production (NPP). We emphasize the use of ensembles so as to distinguish long‐term, anthropogenic trends in marine productivity from internal variability. Twentieth century globally integrated marine NPP is 55.7 ± 1 Pg C, with much of the variability attributable to certain regions (e.g., the equatorial Pacific). CESM projections indicate that global marine NPP will drop by ∼4% by 2080 if we follow RCP 8.5, but only by 2% under RCP 4.5. The response to warming on a global scale includes compensating regional effects; NPP increases in polar and eastern equatorial Pacific waters but decreases in the Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The two main phytoplankton groups simulated in CESM show distinct responses: diatoms decrease their NPP, while small phytoplankton NPP increases over the mid‐21st century. Trends in NPP from mid‐21st century to 2080 are significantly different between the two emission scenarios mainly in the Atlantic Ocean basin and therefore impacts here are “avoidable” if we follow RCP 4.5, rather than RCP 8.5. In contrast, changes in NPP on a global scale and in most areas of the Pacific and Indian basins and the Southern Ocean are not distinguishable between forcing scenarios.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Lothar Schlüter;Kai T. Lohbeck;M. Gutowska;J. Gröger;U. Riebesell;T. Reusch
通讯作者：
Lothar Schlüter;Kai T. Lohbeck;M. Gutowska;J. Gröger;U. Riebesell;T. Reusch