Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply: Validation
Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply: Validation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2013.10.075
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Jefferson, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hallock, John L., Jr.;Wu, Wei;Jefferson, Michael
石油和相关产品仍然是世界上几乎所有经济体维持和增长的主要推动力。2008年年中石油价格急剧上涨，沿着全球经济衰退，这突出表明，我们仍然容易受到未来廉价石油供应有限的影响。对地球上现有的可开采常规石油的原始数量（欧元）的各种估计之间的巨大差异，充其量只是在规划者和政策制定者中助长了未来供应限制风险的不确定性，更糟糕的是，使世界陷入一种虚假的安全感。在2002年，我们模拟了未来的石油生产在46个国家单位和世界通过使用一个三阶段，基于Hubbert的方法，产生的轨迹依赖于设置欧元（可提取的最终资源），需求增长，石油资源的百分比提取下降，和最大允许的生产增长率。我们分析了石油产量开始下降的日期对每个输入参数变化的敏感性。在目前的工作中，我们将过去11年的经验石油生产数据与我们早期的预测情景进行比较，以评估欧元和其他输入参数的哪些设置产生了最准确的预测。当与适当的输入设置相结合时，我们的模型始终生成与国家和全球层面的经验数据非常接近的石油生产轨迹。总的来说，最低欧元假设与全球一级和大多数国家的经验数据最为一致，而基于中欧元和高欧元估计数的假设则大大高估了全球的生产率。全球常规石油产量从2005年开始下降，在过去11年中一直遵循一条非常接近我们假设欧元（1.9千兆桶）的低估计情景的路径。大多数国家的产量都在下降，历史概况与哈伯特的前提基本一致。虽然新的常规石油发现和生产预计在短期内开始，但在未来10年内，我们模拟的生产轨迹每年增加1.0%所需的幅度将大大偏离目前的趋势。我们现在经过充分验证的模拟与许多最近的“预测”有很大的差异，这些预测是关于未来常规石油的广泛可用性。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Oil and related products continue to be prime enablers of the maintenance and growth of nearly all of the world's economies. The dramatic increase in the price of oil through mid-2008, along with the coincident (and possibly resultant) global recession, highlight our continued vulnerability to future limitations in the supply of cheap oil. The very large differences between the various estimates of the original volume of extractable conventional oil present on earth (EUR) have, at best, fostered uncertainty of the risk of future supply limitations among planners and policy makers, and at worse lulled the world into a false sense of security. In 2002 we modeled future oil production in 46 nation-units and the world by using a threephase, Hubbert-based approach that produced trajectories dependent on settings for EUR (extractable ultimate resource), demand growth, percent of oil resource extracted at decline, and maximum allowable rates of production growth. We analyzed the sensitivity of the date of onset of decline for oil production to changes in each of these input parameters. In this current effort, we compare the last eleven years of empirical oil production data to our earlier forecast scenarios to evaluate which settings of EUR and other input parameters had created the most accurate projections. When combined with proper input settings, our model consistently generated trajectories for oil production that closely approximated the empirical data at both the national and the global level. In general, the lowest EUR scenarios were the most consistent with the empirical data at the global level and for most countries, while scenarios based on the mid and high EUR estimates overestimated production rates by wide margins globally. The global production of conventional oil began to decline in 2005, and has followed a path over the last 11 years very close to our scenarios assuming low estimates of EUR (1.9 Gbbl). Production in most nations is declining, with historical profiles generally consistent with Hubbert's premises. While new conventional oil discoveries and production starts are expected in the near term, the magnitudes necessary to increase our simulated production trajectories by even 1.0% per year over the next 10 years would represent a large departure from current trends. Our now well-validated simulations are at significant variance from many recent "predictions" of extensive future availability of conventional oil. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.