Environmental risk factors and hotspot analysis of dengue distribution in Pakistan
Environmental risk factors and hotspot analysis of dengue distribution in Pakistan
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-015-0982-1
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Ghaffar, Abdul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Khalid, Bushra;Ghaffar, Abdul
本研究试图找出2011年巴基斯坦不同城市登革热暴发的原因。为此，已考虑到伊斯兰堡、拉瓦尔平迪、拉合尔和卡拉奇登革热的时空分布。根据现有的数据，造成这种传播的因素包括气候协变量，如降雨量，温度和风速;社会协变量，如人口和地区面积，以及环境风险因素，如排水模式和地质水文条件。已处理了从地方报告的登革热病例和航天飞机雷达地形使命（SRTM）90米数字高程模型（DEM）的研究地区的热点，回归模型和流密度在登革热高发地区。每日登革热发病率与气候协变量的关系在研究年的7月至10月进行了分析。结果表明，在高溪流密度和人口的地区，在7月和8月的潮湿月份，2-4天的干旱期为登革热病媒的发展和生存提供了合适的条件。7月报告的病例很少，而8月、9月至10月下旬报告的病例较多。热点分析突出了登革热高发地区，而回归分析显示了登革热发病地区人口与地区之间的关系。
This study is an attempt to find out the factors responsible for sudden dengue outbreak in different cities of Pakistan during 2011. For this purpose, spatio-temporal distribution of dengue in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Karachi has been taken into account. According to the available data, the factors responsible for this spread includes climate covariates like rainfall, temperature, and wind speed; social covariates like population, and area of locality, and environmental risk factors like drainage pattern and geo-hydrological conditions. Reported dengue cases from localities and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 90 m digital elevation model (DEM) of study areas have been processed for hotspots, regression model and stream density in the localities of high dengue incidence. The relationship of daily dengue incidence with climate covariates during the months of July-October of the study year is analyzed. Results show that each dry spell of 2-4 days provides suitable conditions for the development and survival of dengue vectors during the wet months of July and August in the areas of high stream density and population. Very few cases have been reported in July while higher number of cases reported in the months of August, September, until late October. Hotspot analysis highlights the areas of high dengue incidence while regression analysis shows the relationship between the population and the areas of localities with the dengue incidence.