Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US
Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US
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DOI：
10.1257/app.3.4.152
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Greenstone, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deschenes, Olivier;Greenstone, Michael
使用随机的逐年温度变化，我们记录了每日温度和年死亡率之间的关系，每日温度和年住宅能源消耗。这两种关系表现出非线性，在温度分布的极端显着增加。将这些结果应用于“一切照旧”的气候预测表明，到世纪末，气候变化将导致年龄调整后的死亡率增加3%，年度住宅能源消耗增加11%。这些估计可能夸大了长期成本，因为气候变化将逐步展开，使个人能够参与更广泛的适应。
Using random year-to-year variation in temperature, we document the relationship between daily temperatures and annual mortality rates and daily temperatures and annual residential energy consumption. Both relationships exhibit nonlinearities, with significant increases at the extremes of the temperature distribution. The application of these results to "business as usual" climate predictions indicates that by the end of the century climate change will lead to increases of 3 percent in the age-adjusted mortality rate and 11 percent in annual residential energy consumption. These estimates likely overstate the long-run costs, because climate change will unfold gradually allowing individuals to engage in a wider set of adaptations.