Population viscosity suppresses disease emergence by preserving local herd immunity.
Population viscosity suppresses disease emergence by preserving local herd immunity.
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群体粘性通过保持局部群体免疫力来抑制疾病的出现。
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2014.1901
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shim,Eunha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reluga,TimothyC;Shim,Eunha
传染病的动物宿主对人类构成持续的风险。在这种人畜共患病理论中，假设引发流行病的引入事件独立于所有先前事件。然而，引进往往集中在连接水库和一般人群之间生态界面的社区。在本文中，我们探讨了桥梁群落内引入事件的聚集如何改变疾病出现的风险。在粘性桥梁社区，重复引入可以提高当地的免疫力流行率。这种局部群体免疫可以形成屏障，减少疾病出现的机会。在某些情况下，降低暴露率会违反直觉地增加出现风险，因为局部免疫力会降低。即使平均接触率保持不变，人口混合的增加也会增加突发危险。我们的桥梁群落理论可能有助于指导预防并解释历史出现事件，在这些事件中，稳定的经济、政治或人口过程的破坏降低了生态界面处的人口粘度。
Animal reservoirs for infectious diseases pose ongoing risks to human populations. In this theory of zoonoses, the introduction event that starts an epidemic is assumed to be independent of all preceding events. However, introductions are often concentrated in communities that bridge the ecological interfaces between reservoirs and the general population. In this paper, we explore how the risks of disease emergence are altered by the aggregation of introduction events within bridge communities. In viscous bridge communities, repeated introductions can elevate the local prevalence of immunity. This local herd immunity can form a barrier reducing the opportunities for disease emergence. In some situations, reducing exposure rates counterintuitively increases the emergence hazards because of off-setting reductions in local immunity. Increases in population mixing can also increase emergence hazards, even when average contact rates are conserved. Our theory of bridge communities may help guide prevention and explain historical emergence events, where disruption of stable economic, political or demographic processes reduced population viscosity at ecological interfaces.