The relative importance of predictors of body mass index change, overweight and obesity in adolescent girls
The relative importance of predictors of body mass index change, overweight and obesity in adolescent girls
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DOI：
10.3109/17477166.2010.545410
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发表时间：
2011-06-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Epel, Elissa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rehkopf, David H.;Laraia, Barbara A.;Epel, Elissa
Objective.确定家庭、饮食、行为、心理和社会风险因素对预测体重指数（BMI）变化以及青春期女孩超重和肥胖发生的相对重要性。方法.来自NHLBI生长与健康研究（n = 2 150）的数据，一个纵向队列的女孩，被用来确定最重要的预测因素的变化之间的BMI百分位数的9和19岁，第二，超重和肥胖的风险。使用基于树的回归方法（随机森林）对41个基线预测因子进行评估，以排名风险因素的相对重要性。结果最能预测BMI百分位数变化的五个因素（p < 0.05）与家庭社会经济地位（收入和父母教育程度）以及限制饮食和体重的驱动力（身体不满，对苗条的驱动力和对外表的不满）有关。对超重和肥胖的发生有统计学意义（p < 0.05）的预测因素是收入、效率低下和种族。结论.家庭社会经济地位和情绪调节是BMI变化和超重和肥胖发生的最佳预测因素。我们的研究结果建立在先前的研究结果，即预防青春期肥胖症发作的政策应针对来自社会经济地位较低家庭的女孩。我们的研究结果还提出了几个新的心理因素，包括在青春期肥胖的预测无效。这些预测结果提供了一个方向，为未来的调查青少年肥胖病因学的因果关系的方法。
Objective. To determine the relative importance of familial, dietary, behavioral, psychological and social risk factors for predicting body mass index (BMI) change, and onset of overweight and obesity among adolescent girls. Methods. Data from the NHLBI Growth and Health Study (n = 2 150), a longitudinal cohort of girls, were used to identify the most important predictors of change in BMI percentile between the ages of 9 and 19 years, and second, risk for becoming overweight and obese. Forty-one baseline predictors were assessed using a tree-based regression method (Random forest) to rank the relative importance of risk factors. Results. The five factors that best predicted change in BMI percentile (p < 0.05) were related to family socio-economic position (income and parent education) and drive to restrict eating and weight (body dissatisfaction, drive for thinness and unhappiness with physical appearance). The factors that were statistically significant (p < 0.05) predictors of both onset of overweight and obesity were income, ineffectiveness and race. Conclusions. Family socio-economic position and emotion regulation appeared as the top predictors of both BMI change and onset of overweight and obesity. Our results build upon prior findings that policies to prevent the onset of obesity during adolescence be targeted towards girls from lower socio-economic position households. Our findings also suggest several novel psychological factors including ineffectiveness as predictors of obesity during adolescence. These predictive findings offer a direction for future inquiry into adolescent obesity etiology using causal methods.