Mothers with living children and children with living mothers: the role of fertility and mortality in the period 1911-2050.
Mothers with living children and children with living mothers: the role of fertility and mortality in the period 1911-2050.
复制标题
有活着的孩子的母亲和有活着的母亲的孩子：1911-2050 年期间生育率和死亡率的作用。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Grundy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Murphy;E. Grundy
一个人是否在特定年龄有一个或多个幸存的孩子和/或尚存的父母都取决于生育率（不仅是孩子的数量，还包括生育的时间）和死亡率。我们考虑死亡率和生育率的变化对过去和未来可能出现的此类亲属的趋势的贡献。 1911 年至 1970 年出生的人中，60 岁且母亲健在的人口比例将增加一倍以上，而且这一数字至少在未来 30 年还将持续增加。尽管人们越来越担心在未来四分之一个世纪左右的时间里，老年人能否获得由儿童提供的非正式护理，但事实上，我们得出的结论是，与英国有史以来出生的任何一代相比，老年人存活子女的比例可能更高，并且将比任何可预见的未来群体拥有更多的子女。
Whether an individual has one or more surviving children at a given age and/or a surviving parent depends both on fertility (not only number of children, but also timing of childbearing) and mortality. We consider the contribution of changes in mortality and fertility to past and likely future trends on availability of such kin. The proportion of people aged 60 with a mother alive will more than double between those born in 1911 and 1970, and the figure will increase for at least the next 30 years. While there are increasing concerns about the availability of informal care for elderly people from children in the next quarter century or so, in fact we conclude that a higher proportion of elderly people are likely to have a surviving child than for any generation ever born in Britain, and will have more than any foreseeable future cohort.