Large-ensemble climate simulations to assess changes in snow stability over northern Japan
Large-ensemble climate simulations to assess changes in snow stability over northern Japan
复制标题
用于评估日本北部积雪稳定性变化的大型集合气候模拟
DOI：
10.1017/jog.2022.85
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Takeuchi Yukari
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Katsuyama Yuta;Katsushima Takafumi;Takeuchi Yukari
为了研究全球变暖的影响，包括增加的大雪频率的潜在的自然干雪崩的频率和规模，我们估计了频率的弱层形成和相关的板过载以上的弱层在北方日本。该估计是使用气候模型输出的1800个冬季模拟在每个历史（1951-2010年）和+4 ° C的实验，迫使基于物理的积雪模型与气候模型的结果进行数值计算。在这里，+4 ° C实验被定义为全球平均气温从工业化前水平上升4°C的气候。估计结果表明，由自然稳定性指数确定的弱层形成概率在整个地区会降低，这是由于气候变暖导致弱层年龄变短，间接表明雪崩频率可能降低。然而，由于大雪频率的增加，内陆地区的碎片/降水颗粒的弱层和面向日本海的山区的小平面/深度白霜的弱层的板过载将增加10-15%，从而可能表明雪崩的强度增加。
To examine the influence of global warming including increased heavy snowfall frequency on the potential of natural dry snow avalanche frequency and magnitude, we estimated the frequency of weak layer formation and the associated slab overload above the weak layer over northern Japan. The estimation was numerically performed using climate models' output for 1800 winter simulations in each of the historical (1951–2010) and +4°C experiments by forcing a physical-based snowpack model with the result of the climate models. Here the +4°C experiment was defined as a climate when the global mean air temperature had increased by 4°C from the preindustrial level. The estimation results showed that the probability of weak layer formation, identified by the natural stability index, would decrease all over the area because of the shorter age of the weak layers caused by a warmer climate, indirectly indicating a potential decrease in avalanche frequency. However, because of increased heavy snowfall frequency, slab overload would increase by 10–15% in inland areas for weak layers of decomposing fragments/precipitation particles and the mountainous area facing the Sea of Japan for weak layers of facets/depth hoar, thereby potentially indicating an increased magnitude of avalanches.