Relative risk estimates from spatial and space-time scan statistics: are they biased?
Relative risk estimates from spatial and space-time scan statistics: are they biased?
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.6143
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发表时间：
2014-07-10
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Assuncao, Renato M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Prates, Marcos O.;Kulldorff, Martin;Assuncao, Renato M.
纯空间和时空扫描统计已被许多科学家成功地用于检测和评估地理疾病集群。尽管扫描统计量在正确识别集群方面具有很强的能力，但还没有研究考虑对检测到的集群中的集群相对风险的估计。在本文中，我们评估了这些估计的相对风险是否存在偏差。直观地说，人们可能会认为估计的相对风险有上升的倾向，因为扫描统计精挑细选了高比率的地区来包括在集群中。我们表明，这种直觉对于低统计功率的星团是正确的，但对于中到高的统计功率，偏差变得可以忽略不计。对于预期的时空扫描统计量则没有观察到同样的行为，其中随着检测星团的能力的增加，相对风险的保守向下偏差越来越大。版权所有(C)2014 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
The purely spatial and space-time scan statistics have been successfully used by many scientists to detect and evaluate geographical disease clusters. Although the scan statistic has high power in correctly identifying a cluster, no study has considered the estimates of the cluster relative risk in the detected cluster. In this paper, we evaluate whether there is any bias on these estimated relative risks. Intuitively, one may expect that the estimated relative risks has upward bias, because the scan statistic cherry picks high rate areas to include in the cluster. We show that this intuition is correct for clusters with low statistical power, but with medium to high power, the bias becomes negligible. The same behavior is not observed for the prospective space-time scan statistic, where there is an increasing conservative downward bias of the relative risk as the power to detect the cluster increases. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.