Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa
Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246
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发表时间：
2021-09-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Woolnough, Steve
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hirons, Linda;Thompson, Elisabeth;Woolnough, Steve
次季节到季节（S2S）时间尺度的预测具有巨大的潜力，可以帮助各个部门的备灾和减少灾害风险规划决策。然而，实现这一潜力取决于能否提供可适当用于用户决策的可靠信息。这项研究描述了非洲SWIFT（天气信息和预报技术科学）预测试验台，该试验台汇集了来自非洲和英国一系列机构的研究人员，预报制作者和用户。预测试验平台正在试点向非洲决策者提供实时、定制的S2S预测产品。从启动研讨会和初步案例研究的例子中汲取数据，本研究批判性地反思了联合生产过程。具体而言，直接访问实时数据允许用户指导迭代预测产品的空间尺度，时间，可视化和通信，使其对用户更具可操作性。一些关于有效联合制作的重要经验教训正在出现。首先，必须确保有足够的资源来支持联合生产，特别是在早期共同探索需求方面。其次，联合生产过程中的所有团队都需要能力建设，才能在新的知识体系中有效工作。第三，评估应是持续的，并将联合收割机气象核查与决策者反馈相结合。确保试验平台内项目启动的服务的可持续性取决于将共同制作过程中个人之间的知识交流纳入非洲机构内改进业务S2S预测的可持续途径。
Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions.