Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.
Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.
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DOI：
10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262
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发表时间：
2021-07-14
影响因子：
17.1
通讯作者：
Baguelin M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Knock ES;Whittles LK;Lees JA;Perez-Guzman PN;Verity R;FitzJohn RG;Gaythorpe KAM;Imai N;Hinsley W;Okell LC;Rosello A;Kantas N;Walters CE;Bhatia S;Watson OJ;Whittaker C;Cattarino L;Boonyasiri A;Djaafara BA;Fraser K;Fu H;Wang H;Xi X;Donnelly CA;Jauneikaite E;Laydon DJ;White PJ;Ghani AC;Ferguson NM;Cori A;Baguelin M
适用于监测数据的SARS-CoV-2传播模型估计了病毒的传播性、感染严重程度和干预措施的影响。鉴于新出现的变种，了解与SARS-CoV-2最初传播和控制有关的因素是重要的。敲门等人。回顾了自2020年12月SARS-CoV-2病毒首次引入以来，英国疗养院、医院和社区在SARS-CoV-2传播和相关死亡率方面的差异，按年龄和地理区域随时间分层。他们发现，封锁是迄今为止最有效的控制措施，并估计，如果提前一周实施封锁，英国此时的死亡率可能会大致减半。我们将SARS-CoV-2在疗养院和社区中的传播模型与英国的区域监测数据进行了匹配。与其他方法相比，我们的模型将多个监控数据流综合到一个连贯的建模框架中，允许传输和严重性从监控系统的特征中分离出来。在实施的控制措施中，只有国家封锁使繁殖数量(Rteff)始终低于1；如果提前一周实施，第一波死亡人数可能会从估计的48 600人减少到25 600人[95%可信区间：15 900人到38 400人]。感染病死率从1.00%(95%CRI：0.85~1.21%)降至0.79%(95%CRI：0.63~0.99%)，提示改善了临床护理。居住在养老院的老年人的感染死亡率(23.3%，95%CRI：14.7%至35.2%)高于居住在社区的老年人(7.9%，95%CRI：5.9%至10.3%)。到2020年12月2日，英格兰仍远未获得群体免疫，区域累积感染率介于7.6%(95%CRI：5.4至10.2%)至22.3%(95%CRI：19.4%至25.4%)之间。因此，任何疫苗接种运动都需要在接种疫苗的个人中实现高覆盖率和高度保护，以便取消非药物干预，而不会再次出现传播。
A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fitted to surveillance data estimates virus transmissibility, infection severity, and the impact of interventions. Understanding factors related to the initial spread and control of SARS-CoV-2 is important in light of emerging variants. Knock et al. retrospectively examined differences in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and related mortality in care homes, hospitals, and the community in England since the virus was first introduced in December 2020, stratified by age and geographical region over time. They found that lockdown was by far the most effective control measure and also estimated that mortality in England at this time could have been roughly halved if a lockdown had been introduced 1 week earlier. We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rteff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI: 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI: 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI: 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95% CrI: 5.9 to 10.3%). On 2 December 2020, England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95% CrI: 5.4 to 10.2%) and 22.3% (95% CrI: 19.4 to 25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow nonpharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.
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SARS-COV-2血统的估计可传播和影响B.1.1.7在英国。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Davies NG;Abbott S;Barnard RC;Jarvis CI;Kucharski AJ;Munday JD;Pearson CAB;Russell TW;Tully DC;Washburne AD;Wenseleers T;Gimma A;Waites W;Wong KLM;van Zandvoort K;Silverman JD;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Diaz-Ordaz K;Keogh R;Eggo RM;Funk S;Jit M;Atkins KE;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
DOI：
10.1016/s2666-7568(20)30012-x
发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
The lancet. Healthy longevity
影响因子：
--
作者：
Burton JK;Bayne G;Evans C;Garbe F;Gorman D;Honhold N;McCormick D;Othieno R;Stevenson JE;Swietlik S;Templeton KE;Tranter M;Willocks L;Guthrie B
通讯作者：
Guthrie B
影响因子：
105.7
作者：
Docherty, Annemarie B.;Harrison, Ewen M.;Semple, Malcolm G.
通讯作者：
Semple, Malcolm G.
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9868.2006.00553.x
发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Del Moral, Pierre;Doucet, Arnaud;Jasra, Ajay
通讯作者：
Jasra, Ajay
影响因子：
4
作者：
Bernabeu-Wittel, M.;Ternero-Vega, J. E.;Ollero-Baturone, M.
通讯作者：
Ollero-Baturone, M.