Finding sustainable water futures in data-sparse regions under climate change: Insights from the Turkwel River basin, Kenya
Finding sustainable water futures in data-sparse regions under climate change: Insights from the Turkwel River basin, Kenya
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.08.005
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发表时间：
2018-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Hirpa;E. Dyer;R. Hope;D. Olago;S. Dadson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Hirpa;E. Dyer;R. Hope;D. Olago;S. Dadson
研究区域——肯尼亚的特克维尔河流域，由于其干旱的气候、高降雨量变化和快速增长的用水需求，经历了高度的缺水。研究重点：气候变化、可变性和水需求的快速增长对当前和未来全球水资源规划和分配构成了重大挑战。本文采用一种新颖的决策标度方法来模拟特克维尔河流域水资源系统对不断增长的需求和气候压力的响应。结合水资源系统模型、气候数据和一系列需水情景，构建了气候响应面。结果表明，气候变率和水资源需求的增加都是该流域水资源短缺的重要驱动因素。灌溉扩大导致的用水需求增加，强烈影响了流域水资源系统对全球气候变率引起的干旱的抵御能力。气候响应面为决策者了解系统对气候变率和发展情景的响应方式提供了一个直观和灵活的工具。在以人口、政治和经济在中短期内迅速变化为特征的干旱和半干旱地区，加速依赖水的发展和减少贫困的政策决定必须促进考虑长期气候不确定性的低后悔方法。
Study regionthe Turkwel river basin, Kenya experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability and rapidly growing water demand.Study focusClimate change, variability and rapid growth in water demand pose significant challenges to current and future water resources planning and allocation worldwide. In this paper a novel decision-scaling approach was applied to model the response of the Turkwel river basin’s water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. A climate response surface was constructed by combining a water resource system model, climate data, and a range of water demand scenarios.New hydrological insightsThe results show that climate variability and increased water demand are each important drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation strongly influences on the resilience of the basin’s water resource system to droughts caused by the global climate variability. The climate response surface offers a visual and flexible tool for decision-makers to understand the ways in which the system responds to climate variability and development scenarios. Policy decisions to accelerate water-dependent development and poverty reduction in arid and semi-arid lands that are characterised by rapid demographic, political and economic change in the short- to medium term have to promote low-regrets approaches that incorporate longer-term climate uncertainty.