Output Correlation and EMU: Evidence from European Countries
Output Correlation and EMU: Evidence from European Countries
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产出相关性和欧洲货币联盟：来自欧洲国家的证据
DOI：
10.11130/jei.2006.21.3.458
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
K. Inagaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Inagaki
本文考察了经济周期同步性的内生性。使用残差互相关方法，我们探讨欧洲EMU成员国之间的产出相关性。我们的研究结果可以总结如下：（一）同期相关性估计变得更加显着在欧洲货币联盟时期;（二）商业周期的依赖，但不是高度同步在前欧洲货币联盟时期;（三）后过渡到欧洲货币联盟，商业周期的依赖和更高度同步。这些实证结果表明，由不对称的商业周期产生的成本有下降的趋势。在此基础上，我们得出结论，OCA假说的内消性在欧元区成立。
This paper examines the endogenous nature of business cycle synchronization. Using the residual cross-correlation approach, we explore output correlation between European EMU member countries. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (i) contemporaneous correlation estimates become more significant during the EMU period; (ii) business cycles are dependent but not highly synchronized during the pre-EMU period; (iii) after the transition to EMU, business cycles are dependent and more highly synchronized. These empirical results suggest that costs arising from asymmetric business cycles have a tendency to decrease. On these grounds, we conclude that the endogeneity of OCA hypothesis holds in the case of the euro area.