How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?
How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?
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DOI：
10.1029/2009gl038932
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发表时间：
2009-08-15
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Rind, David H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lean, Judith L.;Rind, David H.
对近期气候变化的可靠预测是困难的，特别是在区域尺度上，自然气候变化可能会放大或减轻人为变暖，而数值模型捕捉得很差。通过将最近观测到的地表温度分解为与ENSO、火山和太阳活动以及人为影响相关的成分，我们预测了未来二十年的全球和区域变化。从2009年到2014年，预计人为影响和太阳辐照度的上升将使全球表面温度上升0.15 +/-0.03摄氏度，比IPCC预测的速度高出50%。但由于随后五年太阳活动的下降，2019年的平均气温仅比2014年高0.03 +/-0.01摄氏度。这种缺乏整体变暖的情况类似于2002年至2008年期间，当时太阳辐照度的下降也抵消了大部分人为变暖。我们进一步说明了一个大的火山爆发和超级ENSO将如何修改我们的全球和区域温度预测。引文：Lean，J.L.，和d. H. Rind（2009），地球表面温度在未来几十年将如何变化？地球物理学家。保留信函：36，L15708，doi：10.1029/2009GL038932。
Reliable forecasts of climate change in the immediate future are difficult, especially on regional scales, where natural climate variations may amplify or mitigate anthropogenic warming in ways that numerical models capture poorly. By decomposing recent observed surface temperatures into components associated with ENSO, volcanic and solar activity, and anthropogenic influences, we anticipate global and regional changes in the next two decades. From 2009 to 2014, projected rises in anthropogenic influences and solar irradiance will increase global surface temperature 0.15 +/- 0.03 degrees C, at a rate 50% greater than predicted by IPCC. But as a result of declining solar activity in the subsequent five years, average temperature in 2019 is only 0.03 +/- 0.01 degrees C warmer than in 2014. This lack of overall warming is analogous to the period from 2002 to 2008 when decreasing solar irradiance also countered much of the anthropogenic warming. We further illustrate how a major volcanic eruption and a super ENSO would modify our global and regional temperature projections. Citation: Lean, J.L., and D. H. Rind (2009), How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932.