Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate
Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate
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DOI：
10.1038/41523
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发表时间：
1997-08
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
R. Sutton;R. Sutton;Myles R. Allen;Myles R. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Sutton;R. Sutton;Myles R. Allen;Myles R. Allen
中纬度地区的天气在一周左右的时间内基本上是不可预测的，而海洋的波动可能在更长的时间尺度上是可以预测的。如果北大西洋海面温度的年代际波动可以预测，那么就有可能利用它们对大气的影响来预测气候的年代际波动。在这里，我们报告的船上观测，表明显着的十年可预测性的北大西洋海面温度的分析，所产生的平流传播的海面温度异常和存在的一个定期的12-14年的传播信号。同样的时间尺度可以在北大西洋海平面气压变率的偶极型中确定。我们提出了一种机制，可能连接这些海洋和大气的波动，可能是一个耦合的海洋-大气模式的变化的一部分。我们的研究结果是令人鼓舞的前景预测自然波动的北大西洋地区的气候提前几年。
The weather at middle latitudes is largely unpredictable more than a week or so in advance, whereas fluctuations in the ocean may be predictable over much longer timescales. If decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature,,,,,could be predicted, it might be possible to exploit their influence on the atmosphere,,,to forecast decadal fluctuations in climate. Here we report analyses of shipboard observations that indicate significant decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature, arising from the advective propagation of sea-surface-temperature anomalies and the existence of a regular period of 12–14 years in the propagating signals. The same timescale can be identified in a dipole-like pattern of North Atlantic sea-level pressure variability,,. We propose a mechanism which may connect these oceanic and atmospheric fluctuations, possibly as part of a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode of variability. Our results are encouraging for the prospects of forecasting natural fluctuations in the climate of the North Atlantic region several years in advance.