Analyzing Platinum and Palladium Consumption and Demand Forecast in Japan
Analyzing Platinum and Palladium Consumption and Demand Forecast in Japan
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日本铂钯消费量及需求预测分析
DOI：
10.3390/resources6040061
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shinichirou Morimoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yuna Seo;Shinichirou Morimoto
铂和钯的用量很小，但在各种先进的工业部门中是必不可少的。铂和钯被用作各种工业部门的催化剂，特别是在汽车行业。然而，它们的来源通常集中在南非和俄罗斯，人们对供应安全感到担忧。在资源安全方面，重要的是核实国内铂金和钯的消费趋势和未来需求。为了了解日本国内铂和钯的消费趋势，我们采用自下而上的方法跟踪了2001年至2013年的历史铂和钯消费结构，并使用物质流分析说明了近期国内铂和钯的流动情况。结果表明，2001-2013年，铂的催化转化器(9.1-12.8t)和珠宝(5.3-15.5t)、钯的催化转化器(14.2-20.0t)和牙科用(9.5-16.4t)是消费最大的行业，铂和钯的总消费量在18.4-31.6t和33.0-46.3t之间波动。我们还使用多元回归分析预测了到2025年这两种产品的每个最终用途的需求。我们的结果表明，铂金需求可能会从2013年的18.9t下降到2025年的11.9t，钯需求可能会从2013年的33.0t略微下降到2025年的13.8t。
Platinum and palladium are used in small but essential quantities in a variety of advanced industrial sectors. Platinum and palladium are used as catalysts in various industrial sectors, especially in the car industry. However, their sources are typically concentrated in South Africa and Russia, and there are concerns about supply security. In terms of resource security, it is important to verify domestic platinum and palladium consumption trends and future demand. In order to understand the domestic platinum and palladium consumption trends in Japan, we tracked the historical platinum and palladium consumption structures from 2001 to 2013, applying a bottom-up approach, and illustrated recent domestic platinum and palladium flow by using a substance flow analysis. The results showed that catalytic converters (9.1–12.8 t) and jewelry (5.3–15.5 t) for platinum, and catalytic converters (14.2–20.0 t) and dental use (9.5–16.4 t) for palladium, have marked the biggest consumption sectors during 2001–2013, where the total consumption of platinum and palladium have fluctuated by 18.4–31.6 t for platinum and from 33.0–46.3 t for palladium. We also forecasted the demand for each end-use of both up to the year 2025 using multiple regression analysis. Our results suggest that platinum demand could decrease from 18.9 t in 2013 to 11.9 t in 2025 and palladium demand could slightly decrease from 33.0 t in 2013 to 13.8 t in 2025.