Predicting Recidivism of Juvenile Offenders
Predicting Recidivism of Juvenile Offenders
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DOI：
10.1515/bejeap-2013-0188
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
Spurr, Stephen J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kalist, David E.;Lee, Daniel Y.;Spurr, Stephen J.
这项研究使用了一个大型数据集来分析和预测宾夕法尼亚州少年犯的累犯。我们使用分裂总体持续时间模型来确定协变量对(1)失败概率(定义为第二次提交少年法庭)和(2)失败时间(假设失败发生)的影响。对我们估计的预测能力的测试发现，假阳性率为18.5%，假阴性率为20.7%，与文献中其他模型的性能相比是有利的。
This study uses a large data set to analyze and predict recidivism of juvenile offenders in Pennsylvania. We employ a split-population duration model to determine the effect of covariates on (1) the probability of failure, defined as a second referral to juvenile court, and (2) the time to failure, given that it occurs. A test of the predictive power of our estimates finds a false positive rate of 18.5% and a false negative rate of 20.7%, which compares favorably to the performance of other models in the literature.