HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"
HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013
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发表时间：
2013-11
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
F. Wetterhall;F. Pappenberger;L. Alfieri;H. Cloke;J. T. Pozo;S. Balabanova;J. Daňhelka;A. Vogelbacher-A.
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文献类型：
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作者：
F. Wetterhall;F. Pappenberger;L. Alfieri;H. Cloke;J. T. Pozo;S. Balabanova;J. Daňhelka;A. Vogelbacher-A.
近年来，欧洲水文气象机构越来越多地使用水文集合预报系统（HEPS）来进行洪水业务预报。 HEPS 最明显的优点是可以评估建模系统中更多的不确定性。此外，无论是在平均预测性能还是对极端事件的潜在预测方面，集合预测系统通常都比确定性系统具有更好的技能。迄今为止，研究工作主要致力于模型系统物理和技术方面的改进，例如提高时间和空间分辨率以及更好地描述物理过程。像这样的发展当然是必要的；然而，在本文中，我们认为 HEPS 还有其他领域需要紧急关注。这也是对欧洲洪水意识系统 (EFAS) 内的业务预报员进行的小组练习和调查的结果，以确定其自身系统改进的首要任务。事实证明，它们涵盖了一系列领域，其中最受欢迎的是包括验证
Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydromete- orological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to op- erational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of