Approaches to end-to-end ecosystem models
Approaches to end-to-end ecosystem models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.012
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发表时间：
2010-04-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Fulton, Elizabeth A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fulton, Elizabeth A.
对一般生态、地球化学和气候过程的理解不断加深，使得越来越多的端到端模型得以构建。虽然其中许多都采用通用建模框架的形式，但没有一种方法定义端到端的生态系统建模。有广泛的尺度、分辨率、强迫、分量和代表过程。从现有模型中提取的实例可用于指导创建端到端模型的最佳做法。特别是，很明显，在所有维度（例如空间，时间，分类，过程细节）中默认最好的分辨率和最大的复杂性是没有好处的。在模型开发和实施过程中，尝试不同的模型类型、假设和公式也很有价值;没有一个“最佳”模型。保持方法的多样性非常重要，因为端到端模型在用作战略工具时最有效，可以解决系统如何运作仍存在很大不确定性的问题。端到端建模领域仍然面临着许多挑战，特别是当需要长时间的模拟时，但最大的挑战可能是：气候变化、生物多样性和进化带来的非平稳性;代表人类的反应;以及处理不确定性。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Ever growing understanding of general ecological, biogeochemical and climatic processes is allowing for the construction of a growing list of end-to-end models. While many of these are taking the form of generic modelling frameworks, no one approach defines end-to-end ecosystem modelling. There is a wide range of scales, resolutions, forcings, components and represented processes. Examples drawn from existing models can be used to give guidance on best practice approaches for creating end-to-end models. In particular, it is clear that defaulting to the finest resolution and greatest complexity in all the dimensions (e.g. spatial, temporal, taxonomic, process detail) is not beneficial. There is also a lot of value, during model development and implementation, in trying different model types, assumptions and formulations; there is no one "best" model. Maintaining a diversity of approaches is important given that end-to-end models are most effective when used as strategic tools, to address questions that are at scales where there is still a lot of uncertainty about how systems function. There are still many challenges facing the end-to-end modelling field, particularly when long simulation periods are called for, but perhaps the greatest ones are: non-stationarity introduced by shifting climate, biodiversity and evolution; representing human responses; and handling uncertainty. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.