Analysis of trample disaster and a case study – Mihong bridge fatality in China in 2004
Analysis of trample disaster and a case study – Mihong bridge fatality in China in 2004
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2007.08.002
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发表时间：
2008-10
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Wang Zhen;Liu Mao;Z. Yuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wang Zhen;Liu Mao;Z. Yuan
本文对2004年2月5日米洪大桥人群灾害进行了分析。分析包括对灾情的全过程的描述，踩踏的一些特点，并借助SSM（软系统方法论）分析导致灾情的因素等。通过详细的分析，我们认为造成灾难的主要原因是：对游客人数的估计不准确，失职，沟通不足以及桥梁的设计缺陷。为了强调关键点管理的重要性，通过数学模型和仿真方法对灾害人群聚集过程进行了定量分析，两种方法的结果大致相同。踩踏灾害中，窒息是造成死亡的主要原因。本文报道了事故中的伤亡情况，论证了伤亡构成与事故中产生的力之间的关系。
This paper presents an analysis for the crowd disaster at the Mihong bridge on 5 February 2004. The analysis includes the description of the whole process of the disaster, some characteristics of the trample, and with the help of SSM (soft systematic methodology) the factors that led to the disaster, etc. Through the detailed analysis, we conclude that the main causes of the disaster are as follows: the poor estimation of the tourist population, dereliction of duties, deficient communication, and the design fault of the bridge as well. To emphasis the significance of the management on the critical points, quantitative analysis of the crowd gathering process of the disaster were carried out by mathematical model and simulation methods, the results of the two methods are approximately the same. In the trample disaster, asphyxia is the main cause of the death. This paper reports the casualties in the fatality, demonstrating the relationship between the casualty constitution and the force created during the crush.