The economy impacts of Korean ETS with an emphasis on sectoral coverage based on a CGE approach
The economy impacts of Korean ETS with an emphasis on sectoral coverage based on a CGE approach
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韩国碳排放交易体系的经济影响，重点是基于 CGE 方法的部门覆盖范围
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2017.06.039
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Lee, Hyoungseok
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Choi, Yongrok;Liu, Yu;Lee, Hyoungseok
韩国于2015年1月1日启动了排放交易计划(ETS)。基于这一环境政策，韩国政府在第21届缔约方会议上宣布，到2030年，将把碳排放量从一切照旧(BAU)水平上减少37%。由于这一目标对于韩国经济来说过于雄心勃勃，许多研究分析了韩国排污权交易的经济影响，但很少有研究区分ETS涵盖的行业和未涵盖的行业，尽管缺乏关于配额和排放的行业层面数据。这项研究克服了这些缺点，将韩国ETS(SK-ETS)涵盖的525家公司的数据集转换为与全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)分类一致的28个行业数据库。我们用计算一般均衡(CGE)模型实现了对SK-ETS的模拟。模拟结果表明，虽然SK-ETS具有显著的减排效果(较基本情形下降2.56%)，但对GDP(0.41%)和家庭消费(0.11%)只有轻微的负面影响。工业产出平均下降0.54%，其中天然气和航空运输行业受到的不利影响最大。最明显的价格变化来自电力部门，其出力价格上涨了3.75%。值得注意的是，由于出口导向型经济，许多全球商界领袖和政界人士认为，ETS将使出口企业处于不利地位，而模拟结果显示，在竞争力增强的基础上，贸易顺差更高。
South Korea initiated an emissions trading scheme (ETS) on January 1, 2015. Based on this environmental policy, at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP) meeting, the Korean government announced that it would decrease carbon emissions 37% from business as usual (BAU) levels by 2030. Since this target is too ambitious for the Korean economy, a number of studies have analyzed the economic impacts of emissions trading in Korea, but few have distinguished between industries covered and not covered by the ETS, notwithstanding the lack of industry-level data on quotas and emissions. This study overcomes such shortcomings by converting a dataset of 525 firms covered by the South Korea ETS (SK-ETS) into a 28-sector database consistent with the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) classifications. We implement a simulation of the SK-ETS with a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model. Simulation results suggest that while SK-ETS has significant abatement effects (-2.56% from the base case), it only has mild negative impacts on GDP (0.41%) and household consumption (0.11%). Industry output on average falls by 0.54%, with the gas and air transport sectors most adversely affected. The most noticeable price changes are from the electricity sector, whose output price goes up by 3.75%. It is noteworthy that because of the export-oriented economy, many global business leaders and politicians have argued that the ETS will disadvantage exporting companies, while the simulation results showed a higher trade surplus based on enhanced competitiveness.