Study on the impacts of natural gas supply cost on gas flow and infrastructure deployment in China
Study on the impacts of natural gas supply cost on gas flow and infrastructure deployment in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.06.058
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发表时间：
2016-01
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Qi Zhang;Zhang Li;Ge Wang;Hailong Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qi Zhang;Zhang Li;Ge Wang;Hailong Li
利用优化模型分析了天然气供应成本对2035年前中国天然气跨区域流动和天然气基础设施布局的影响。天然气供应有两种选择，即进口或国产化和利用国内基础设施运输的连续两步程序。考虑到进口价格、国内非常规天然气生产成本和进口来源国地缘政治动荡的不确定性，提出了四种可能的供应成本情景。分析结果表明：（1）.国内非常规天然气生产成本（井口价格）和天然气进口成本（以CIF为代表的进口气价格）是影响中国天然气流量和基础设施部署的两个关键因素;非常规天然气的开发有利于降低供应成本和维持基础设施部署的稳定性，特别是对西南和华北地区;（3）。当天然气进口价格上涨时，LNG进口量的下降幅度大于管道进口量，沿海地区进口LNG将部分由管道进口替代，而不是由国产气替代;缅甸天然气供应中断将导致西南地区天然气流向和基础设施布局发生重大变化;根据不同场景下的优化气体流量部署基础设施。
The impacts of gas supply costs on interregional gas flow and gas infrastructure deployment in China are analyzed out to 2035 by using an optimization model in the present study. There two options for gas supply includes successive two-step procedures of imports or domestic productions and transportation by using infrastructures within China. Four possible supply cost scenarios are proposed considering the uncertainties of import price, domestic unconventional gas production cost and geopolitical turbulence in import source countries. The analysis results show that (1). Domestic unconventional gas production cost (wellhead price) and gas import cost (import gas price represented by CIF) are two key points to gas flow and infrastructure deployment in China; (2). The development of unconventional gas is conductive to supply cost reduction and maintenance of infrastructure deployment stability, especially to Southwest and North China regions; (3). When gas import price increases, LNG import will decrease more than pipeline import, and imported LNG will be partly replaced by pipeline import rather than domestic gas in coastal regions; (4). The disruption of gas supply from Myanmar will lead to great changes of gas flow and infrastructure deployment in Southwest China regions; (5). The infrastructures are deployed according to the optimization gas flow in different scenarios.