Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Review
Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Review
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-18-0210.1
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Waliser, Duane E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Hyemi;Vitart, Frederic;Waliser, Duane E.
在次季节时间范围内，人们对天气和气候预报的兴趣日益浓厚。 Madden - Julian振荡（MJO）是一种有组织的热带对流包络，被认为是次季节可预报性的主要来源之一。这篇综述综合了关于MJO可预报性和预测的最新进展。在过去十年中，动力预测系统中的MJO预测技巧已经超过了经验预测的技巧。这种提高主要归因于更多的观测和计算机资源、理论认识的进步以及数值模型的改进，部分得益于通过外场试验和多模式实验的多国努力。最先进的动力预报显示MJO的预测技巧可达5周。通过改进为MJO预测量身定制的集合生成方法以及对多个集合或多个模式进行平均，可以延长预测技巧。MJO的预测技巧会受到热带平均状态和低频气候模态变化以及温带环流的影响。MJO的预测技巧被证明对模式物理过程、海洋 - 大气耦合以及初始条件的质量敏感，而模式分辨率的影响似乎不大。文中还讨论了充分实现MJO可预报性所面临的剩余挑战以及对新研究途径的建议。
There has been an accelerating interest in forecasting the weather and climate within the subseasonal time range. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), an organized envelope of tropical convection, is recognized as one of the leading sources of subseasonal predictability. This review synthesizes the latest progress regarding the MJO predictability and prediction. During the past decade, the MJO prediction skill in dynamical prediction systems has exceeded the skill of empirical predictions. Such improvement has been mainly attributed to more observations and computer resources, advances in theoretical understanding, and improved numerical models aided in part by multinational efforts through field campaigns and multimodel experiments. The state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts have shown MJO prediction skill up to 5 weeks. Prediction skill can be extended by improving the ensemble generation approach tailored for MJO prediction and by averaging multiensembles or multimodels. MJO prediction skill can be influenced by the tropical mean state and low-frequency climate mode variations, as well as by the extratropical circulation. MJO prediction skill is proven to be sensitive to model physics, ocean-atmosphere coupling, and quality of initial conditions, while the impact of the model resolution seems to be marginal. Remaining challenges and recommendations on new research avenues to fully realize the predictability of the MJO are discussed.