Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel
Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel
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DOI：
10.1111/1475-5890.12179
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
Young, Garry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bloom, Nicholas;Bunn, Philip;Young, Garry
英国在 2016 年公投中决定脱离欧盟，给英国企业带来了巨大的不确定性。这种不确定性的性质因其长度、广度和政治复杂性而不同于典型的不确定性冲击。因此，一项新的公司级调查——决策者小组 (DMP) 被创建来对此进行调查，发现了三个关键结果。首先，据报道，英国脱欧是 2016 年 6 月公投后两年内约 40% 的英国企业面临的三大不确定性来源之一，这一比例在 2018 年秋季进一步增加。因此，英国脱欧带来了重大且持续的不确定性冲击。其次，更加依赖与欧盟贸易和欧盟移民劳动力的行业的不确定性更高。第三，英国脱欧的不确定性主要是对企业的长期影响，而不是短期影响，包括任何过渡安排的时间和英国脱欧性质的不确定性。
The UK's decision to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum created substantial uncertainty for UK businesses. The nature of this uncertainty is different from that of a typical uncertainty shock because of its length, breadth and political complexity. Consequently, a new firm-level survey, the Decision Maker Panel (DMP), was created to investigate this, finding three key results. First, Brexit was reported to be one of the top three sources of uncertainty for around 40 per cent of UK businesses in the two years after the vote in the June 2016 referendum, and this proportion increased further in Autumn 2018. Hence, Brexit provided both a major and persistent uncertainty shock. Second, uncertainty has been higher in industries that are more dependent on trade with the EU and on EU migrant labour. Third, the uncertainties around Brexit are primarily about the impact on businesses over the longer term rather than shorter term, including uncertainty about the timing of any transition arrangements and around the nature of Brexit.