A survival model of pretrial failure
A survival model of pretrial failure
复制标题
审前失败的生存模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
1990
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Richard L. Linster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Christy A. Visher;Richard L. Linster
本文用一个模型考察了审前期间再逮捕的可能性，该模型既取决于释放后经过的时间，也取决于个人和案件特征。利用1984年哥伦比亚特区保释的男性被捕者样本数据，我们将生存或风险模型应用于“预测”审前再逮捕的问题。我们特别感兴趣的是，通过逮捕时的尿液分析来衡量吸毒是否预示着审前再逮捕及其时间。例如，结果显示，在释放后的一段时间内，吸毒或盗窃指控与高风险水平相关。在我们的数据中，在整个预审期间，先前定罪的数量对再逮捕的风险有很强的影响，但最初与缓刑或假释或未决指控相关的高风险在一年的过程中迅速下降。
This paper examines the likelihood of rearrest during the pretrial period with a model that depends on both time elapsed since release and on individual and case characteristics. Using data on a sample of male arrestees released on recognizance in the District of Columbia in 1984, we apply a survival or hazard model to the problem of “predicting” pretrial rearrest. We are particularly interested in whether drug use, as measured by urinalysis at arrest, is predictive of pretrial rearrest and its timing. Results show, for example, that drug use or a charge for larceny is associated with high risk levels in the period immediately following release. In our data, the number of prior convictions exerts a strong effect on rearrest risk throughout the pretrial period, but the initial high risk associated with being on probation or parole or having pending charges decreases rapidly over the course of a year at risk.