Model Projections of the Changes in Atmospheric Circulation and Surface Climate over North America, the North Atlantic, and Europe in the Twenty-First Century
Model Projections of the Changes in Atmospheric Circulation and Surface Climate over North America, the North Atlantic, and Europe in the Twenty-First Century
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-13-00151.1
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发表时间：
2013-11
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
N. Lau;J. Ploshay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Lau;J. Ploshay
摘要：使用耦合大气环流模型研究气候变化对北美-北大西洋-欧洲区域的影响：气候模型，版本 3 (CM3) 和高分辨率大气模型，高分辨率大气模型 (HiRAM)，两者均由地球物理流体动力学实验室开发。 CM3 实验是在 1860 年至 2100 年期间的两种气候变化情景下进行的。与 HiRAM 集成的“时间切片”中规定的海面温度（SST）强迫源自 1979-2008 年期间的观测和 CM3 对 2086-95 年期间的预测。二十一世纪末冬季响应的特点是海平面压力（SLP）中北大西洋涛动正位相的增强以及大西洋急流和风暴路径的向极和向东位移。扰动风暴路径中的涡旋涡通量引起的强迫模式与......中的 SLP 场的响应模式非常匹配。
AbstractThe impacts of climate change on the North America–North Atlantic–Europe sector are studied using a coupled general circulation model: the Climate Model, version 3 (CM3) and a high-resolution atmosphere-only model, the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM)—both developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The CM3 experiment is conducted under two climate change scenarios for the 1860–2100 period. The sea surface temperature (SST) forcing prescribed in the “time slice” integrations with HiRAM is derived from observations for the 1979–2008 period and projection by CM3 for the 2086–95 period.The wintertime response in the late twenty-first century is characterized by an enhancement of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in sea level pressure (SLP) and poleward and eastward displacements of the Atlantic jet stream and storm track. The forcing pattern due to eddy vorticity fluxes in the perturbed storm track matches well with the response pattern of the SLP field in the ...