Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming
Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9
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发表时间：
2022-06-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Collins, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Freychet, Nicolas;Hegerl, Gabriele C.;Collins, Matthew
酷热，特别是如果与湿度结合在一起，对人类健康构成严重威胁。为了估计未来全球极端高温和湿度对健康的风险，我们计算了常用的热应激指标：热指数、湿球温度和湿球温度，来自最新的气候模式国际比较项目(CMIP6)预测。我们分析了不同水平的热应激危险将如何以及在哪里发生变化，从严重到致命，以及结果对所用指数的选择是如何敏感的。我们在国家层面评估这一风险，并使用人口和GDP垂直条购买力平价增长情景来估计每个国家的脆弱性。与以前的研究一致，我们发现南亚、东亚和中东地区高度暴露在热应激危险中，随着全球平均气温从1.5摄氏度到3摄氏度的变化，这种暴露增加了20%-60%。然而，我们也发现，对于一些适应能力较差的脆弱国家，如西非和中美洲和南美洲，热健康风险大幅增加。对于这些地区，平均每年约有20%至50%以上的人口可能面临严重的热应激，与所使用的指数无关。在全球变暖3度的情况下，欧洲国家和美国每年也将多次暴露在日平均热应力水平等于2003年热浪最大热应力的条件下。
Extreme heat, particularly if combined with humidity, poses a severe risk to human health. To estimate future global risk of extreme heat with humidity on health, we calculate indicators of heat stress that have been commonly used: the Heat Index, the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Wet-Bulb Temperature, from the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) projections. We analyse how and where different levels of heat stress hazards will change, from severe to deadly, and how results are sensitive to the choice of the index used. We evaluate this risk at country-level and use population and GDP vertical bar PPP growth scenario to estimate the vulnerability of each nation. Consistent with previous studies, we find that South and East Asia, and the Middle-East, are highly exposed to heat stress hazards, and that this exposure increases by 20%-60% with global mean temperature change from 1.5 to 3 degrees C. However, we also find substantial increases in heat health risk for some vulnerable countries with less adaptive capacity, such as West Africa, and Central and South America. For these regions, about 20 to more than 50% of the population could be exposed to severe heat stress each year on average, independent of the index used. For global warming of 3 degrees, European countries and the USA will also be exposed several times per year to conditions with daily mean heat stress level equal to the maximum heat stress of the 2003 heat wave.