Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?
Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl061694
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发表时间：
2014-11-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Tietsche, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Day, J. J.;Hawkins, E.;Tietsche, S.
北极海冰厚度被认为是北极海冰范围的重要预测因子。然而，耦合季节预报系统在初始化时一般不使用海冰厚度观测，因此缺少一个潜在的重要额外技能来源。为了研究这个源有多大，一组合奏潜在的可预测性实验与全球气候模式，初始化和不知道海冰厚度的初始状态，已经运行。这些实验表明，海冰厚度场的准确知识是至关重要的海冰浓度和范围预测长达8个月的未来，特别是在夏季。海冰厚度的扰动也对未来几个月北极2米温度的预测误差产生重大影响。这些结果表明，提高观测海冰厚度并将其纳入耦合预报系统的能力可以显著提高技能。
Arctic sea ice thickness is thought to be an important predictor of Arctic sea ice extent. However, coupled seasonal forecast systems do not generally use sea ice thickness observations in their initialization and are therefore missing a potentially important source of additional skill. To investigate how large this source is, a set of ensemble potential predictability experiments with a global climate model, initialized with and without knowledge of the sea ice thickness initial state, have been run. These experiments show that accurate knowledge of the sea ice thickness field is crucially important for sea ice concentration and extent forecasts up to 8 months ahead, especially in summer. Perturbing sea ice thickness also has a significant impact on the forecast error in Arctic 2 m temperature a few months ahead. These results suggest that advancing capabilities to observe and assimilate sea ice thickness into coupled forecast systems could significantly increase skill.