Bankruptcy and the COVID-19 Crisis
Bankruptcy and the COVID-19 Crisis
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破产和 COVID-19 危机
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3690398
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Raymond Kluender
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jialan Wang;Jeyul Yang;Benjamin Iverson;Raymond Kluender
我们利用申请范围的实时数据，研究了COVID-19经济危机对美国企业和消费者破产的影响。从历史上看，破产与商业周期和同期失业率密切相关。然而，到目前为止，这种关系在COVID-19危机期间发生了逆转。虽然总申请率与2019年疫情严重爆发前的水平非常相似，但与媒体报道和许多专家的预期相反，消费者和小企业的申请量从3月中旬开始大幅下降。今年1月至8月，破产申请总数同比下降了27%。消费者和企业第7章申请从4月中旬开始适度反弹，并比2019年水平稳定在20%左右，但到8月底，第13章申请仍比2019年水平低55- 65%。与2007- 2009年的经济衰退相比，在4月至7月间失业率上升幅度较大的州，破产率下降幅度较大。尽管它们只占破产总数的一小部分，但自2019年以来，大公司提交的第11章破产申请有所增加，从1月到8月同比增长近200%。这些模式表明，在2019冠状病毒病危机期间，消费者、小企业和大企业的财务经历出现了分歧。就像在正常的经济衰退中一样，大型企业继续从破产制度中寻求并获得救济，相对富裕的房主平均从《关怀法案》（CARES Act）和其他政策规定的财政刺激和住房暂停中受益。然而，非房主和小型企业在进入破产制度时可能面临财务、物质和技术障碍，特别是在受失业影响最严重的地区。
We examine the impact of the COVID-19 economic crisis on business and consumer bankruptcies in the United States using real-time data on the universe of filings. Historically, bankruptcies have closely tracked the business cycle and contemporaneous unemployment rates. However, this relationship has reversed during the COVID-19 crisis thus far. While aggregate filing rates were very similar to 2019 levels prior to the severe onset of the pandemic, filings by consumers and small businesses dropped dramatically starting in mid-March, contrary to media reports and many experts' expectations. The total number of bankruptcy filings is down by 27 percent year-over-year between January and August. Consumer and business Chapter 7 filings rebounded moderately starting in mid-April and stabilized around 20 percent below 2019 levels, but Chapter 13 filings remained at 55-65 percent below 2019 levels through the end of August. In contrast to the 2007-9 recession, states with a larger increase in unemployment between April and July experienced greater drops in bankruptcies. Although they make up a small share of overall bankruptcies, Chapter 11 filings by large corporations have increased since 2019, and are up nearly 200 percent year-over-year from January through August. These patterns suggest that the financial experiences of consumers, small businesses, and large corporations have diverged during the COVID-19 crisis. Large businesses have continued to seek and receive relief from the bankruptcy system as they would during a normal recession, and relatively wealthy homeowners have on average benefited from the fiscal stimulus and housing moratoria mandated by the CARES Act and other policies. However, non-homeowners and small businesses may face financial, physical, and technological barriers to accessing the bankruptcy system, especially in the areas hardest-hit by unemployment.