Quantifying aviation's contribution to global warming
Quantifying aviation's contribution to global warming
复制标题
量化航空对全球变暖的贡献
DOI：
10.1002/essoar.10507359.1
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Klöwer M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Klöwer M
航空业的增长对全球变暖的影响比人们普遍认为的要大，因为它产生了各种气候污染物。在这里，我们模拟了二氧化碳和非二氧化碳的影响，如氮氧化物排放和尾迹形成，以分析航空的总变暖足迹。迄今为止，航空业对人类引起的全球变暖的贡献约为4%，尽管其二氧化碳排放量仅占全球年排放量的2.4%。预计到2050年，航空业将导致全球变暖约0.1摄氏度，其中一半是迄今为止的，另一半是未来三十年的，如果航空业恢复COVID前的增长。该行业将贡献6%-17%的份额，其余0.3 C-0.8 C不超过1.5 C-2 C的全球变暖。在这种情况下，迄今为止COVID-19造成的减排量很小，预计仅会将航空业的变暖贡献推迟约五年。但增长的杠杆效应也代表着一个机会：航空业对进一步变暖的贡献将立即停止，要么在现有燃料组合下每年持续减少2.5%的空中交通量，要么到2050年过渡到90%的碳中性燃料组合。
Growth in aviation contributes more to global warming than is generally appreciated because of the mix of climate pollutants it generates. Here, we model the CO 2 and non-CO 2 effects like nitrogen oxide emissions and contrail formation to analyse aviation's total warming footprint. Aviation contributed approximately 4% to observed human-induced global warming to date, despite being responsible for only 2.4% of global annual emissions of CO 2. Aviation is projected to cause a total of about 0.1 C of warming by 2050, half of it to date and the other half over the next three decades, should aviation's pre-COVID growth resume. The industry would then contribute a 6%–17% share to the remaining 0.3 C–0.8 C to not exceed 1.5 C–2 C of global warming. Under this scenario, the reduction due to COVID-19 to date is small and is projected to only delay aviation's warming contribution by about five years. But the leveraging impact of growth also represents an opportunity: aviation's contribution to further warming would be immediately halted by either a sustained annual 2.5% decrease in air traffic under the existing fuel mix, or a transition to a 90% carbon-neutral fuel mix by 2050.