A coupled agent-based risk-based optimization model for integrated urban water management
A coupled agent-based risk-based optimization model for integrated urban water management
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scs.2019.101922
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
11.7
通讯作者：
Parnian Hashempour Bakhtiari;M. Nikoo;A. Izady;N. Talebbeydokhti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Parnian Hashempour Bakhtiari;M. Nikoo;A. Izady;N. Talebbeydokhti
城市水资源综合管理（IUWM）是一种综合性的缓解战略，以控制水资源容量减少和水需求增加的同时影响造成的水资源短缺。在这里，我们开发了一个耦合的基于代理的基于风险的优化模型，该模型能够考虑水资源容量和水需求的不确定性，以确定最佳的年度水量分配。采用基于条件风险价值（CVaR）的优化模型，以最小化长期供水风险为目标，得到了年供水量满足需求的概率。根据LARS-WG生成的不同气候情景下的合成天气数据，分别采用HMETS和MODFLOW对地表水和地下水资源进行了模拟。然后，开发的基于代理的模型考虑代理的属性，行动角色和相互作用，通过应用Borda评分方法，并确定最兼容的IUWM策略，以增加供水或修改水需求。拟议的框架在伊朗设拉子市实施，揭示了IUWM战略在2018年至2050年期间缓解水资源短缺的强烈需求。拟议的方法提供了一个有效的框架，以实现可持续管理战略的城市与紧张的水资源和快速的城市发展。
Integrated urban water management (IUWM) is a comprehensive mitigation strategy to control water deficit due to simultaneous effects of reduction in water resources capacity and increase in water demand. Here we develop a coupled agent-based risk-based optimization model, which is able to account for water resources capacity and water demand uncertainties to determine the optimum annual water allocation. An optimization model based on conditional value at risk (CVaR) is employed to minimize the water supply risk in a long-term horizon and obtain the annual probabilities of complete supply of water demand. According to the generated synthetic weather data by LARS-WG for different climate scenarios, surface water and groundwater resources are modeled using HMETS and MODFLOW, respectively. Then, the developed agent-based model considers agents’ attributes, action roles and interactions by applying Borda scoring approach, and determines the most compatible IUWM strategies to increase water supply or modify water demand. The proposed framework is implemented for the Shiraz city in Iran, revealing a strong need to IUWM strategies to alleviate the water deficit over the period of 2018 to 2050. The proposed approach provides an efficient framework to achieve sustainable management strategies for cities with stressed water resources and rapid urban development.