Quantifying Survey Expectations: A Critical Review and Generalization of the Carlson-Parkin Method
Quantifying Survey Expectations: A Critical Review and Generalization of the Carlson-Parkin Method
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量化调查预期：卡尔森-帕金方法的批判性回顾和推广
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yongchen Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Lahiri;Yongchen Zhao
本文利用密歇根大学消费者调查的家庭数据，对流行的卡尔森-帕金（CP）量化方法进行了批判性的回顾。我们发现强有力的证据反对阈值常数，对称性，均匀性，和总体无偏性假设的CP方法。为了解决这些冲突，我们使用层次有序概率（HOPIT）模型推广了CP方法。通过将量化通胀预期与直接从同一组家庭中获得的量化通胀预期进行比较，我们表明广义模型比CP方法具有更好的性能。特别是，当CP无偏性假设被时变校准所取代时，结果发现量化序列在不同时间段内都能很好地跟踪定量基准。
This paper provides a critical review of the popular Carlson–Parkin (CP) quantification method using household-level data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. We find strong evidence against the threshold constancy, symmetry, homogeneity, and overall unbiasedness assumptions of the CP method. To address these violations, we generalize the CP method using a hierarchical ordered probit (HOPIT) model. By comparing the quantified inflation expectations with quantitative expectations obtained from the same set of households directly, we show that the generalized model performs better than the CP method. In particular, when the CP unbiasedness assumption is replaced by a time-varying calibration, the resulting quantified series is found to track the quantitative benchmark well, over diverse time periods.
预期数据的效用：使用匹配的英国定性定量调查的公司级证据
影响因子：
7.9
作者：
Lui S
通讯作者：
Lui S