Short-term effects of specific humidity and temperature on COVID-19 morbidity in select US cities
Short-term effects of specific humidity and temperature on COVID-19 morbidity in select US cities
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140093
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发表时间：
2020-10-20
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Rennie, Jared J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Runkle, Jennifer D.;Sugg, Margaret M.;Rennie, Jared J.
对于驱动 SARS-CoV-2 时空模式的环境条件知之甚少。初步研究表明与气象参数有关。然而，对于首先受影响的美国城市中的 COVID-19 病例，其与温度和湿度的关系尚不明显。本研究的目的是评估美国部分城市的 COVID-19 病例与气象参数之间的关联。采用分布式滞后非线性模型的病例交叉设计来评估环境温度和比湿度对美国部分城市的 COVID-19 病例的影响。病例交叉检查每个新冠病例作为不同时间段（传播发生之前和之后）的自身对照。我们使用 7 天的滞后期模拟了温度和湿度对 COVID-19 传播的影响。对 8 个城市的子集与气象参数的关系进行了评估，并对 5 个城市进行了详细评估。在 4 个城市中，短期暴露于湿度与 COVID-19 传播呈正相关。这些关联很小，四分之三的城市表现出较高的新冠肺炎传播率，具体湿度范围为 6 至 9 克/千克。我们的结果表明，在传染病建模工作中应考虑天气因素。未来需要在更长的时间段和不同的地点开展工作，以明确建立天气与新冠病毒的关系。 (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Little is known about the environmental conditions that drive the spatiotemporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2. Preliminary research suggests an association with meteorological parameters. However, the relationship with temperature and humidity is not yet apparent for COVID-19 cases in US cities first impacted. The objective of this study is to evaluate the association between COVID-19 cases and meteorological parameters in select US cities. A case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the contribution of ambient temperature and specific humidity on COVID-19 cases in select US cities. The case-crossover examines each COVID case as its own control at different time periods (before and after transmission occurred). We modeled the effect of temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission using a lag period of 7 days. A subset of 8 cities were evaluated for the relationship with meteorological parameters and 5 cities were evaluated in detail. Shortterm exposure to humidity was positively associated with COVID-19 transmission in 4 cities. The associations were small with 3 out of 4 cities exhibiting higher COVID19 transmission with specific humidity that ranged from 6 to 9 g/kg. Our results suggest that weather should be considered in infectious disease modeling efforts. Future work is needed over a longer time period and across different locations to clearly establish the weather-COVID19 relationship. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.