A Method for Obtaining Short-Term Projections and Lower Bounds on the Size of the AIDS Epidemic
A Method for Obtaining Short-Term Projections and Lower Bounds on the Size of the AIDS Epidemic
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DOI：
10.1080/01621459.1988.10478599
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发表时间：
1988-06
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
R. Brookmeyer;M. Gail
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Brookmeyer;M. Gail
摘要提出了一种通过预测已感染艾滋病病毒者的病例数来获得获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）流行的短期预测方法。这是艾滋病流行病规模的下限，因为即使可以预防未来的感染，人们仍然可以预测到这个数字。该方法的新颖之处在于，既不需要对人群中受感染个体的数量进行假设，也不需要对受感染个体最终发展为艾滋病的概率进行假设。然而，这种方法的前提是了解艾滋病毒在那些注定会发展成艾滋病的人中间的潜伏期分布。虽然这种方法没有考虑到新的感染，但由于从感染到临床诊断为艾滋病的潜伏期相对较长，它可以产生准确的短期预测。估计程序从艾滋病发病率数据“反向计算”到以前感染的人数。在……
Abstract A methodology is proposed for obtaining short-term projections of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic by projecting the number of cases from those already infected with the AIDS virus. This is a lower bound on the size of the AIDS epidemic, because even if future infections could be prevented, one could still anticipate this number of cases. The methodology is novel in that no assumptions are required about either the number of infected individuals in the population or the probability of an infected individual eventually developing AIDS. The methodology presupposes knowledge of the incubation distribution, however, among those destined to develop AIDS. Although the method does not account for new infections, it may produce accurate short-term projections because of the relatively long incubation period from infection to clinically diagnosed AIDS. The estimation procedure “back-calculates” from AIDS incidence data to numbers previously infected. The number of cases diagnosed in ...