Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030
Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.006
复制
发表时间：
2017-04-01
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Piller, Frank T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jiang, Ruth;Kleer, Robin;Piller, Frank T.
增材制造（俗称：3D打印）是一个高度讨论的话题。以前的研究认为，这项技术不仅对制造业产生了深远的影响，而且对社会也产生了深远的影响，这需要新的企业战略和政策。因此，制定可靠的未来情景是战略规划和决策以及未来研究的关键。这一领域的专门学术研究仍然很少。我们介绍了德尔菲对增材制造未来的广泛调查结果，重点关注其在2030年的经济和社会影响。通过第一轮广泛的定性访谈和基于Delphi的分析3510定量估计和1172定性评论从65位专家，我们能够开发和验证18个预测，然后聚类到一个场景中最有可能的未来。该情景是建立在六个德尔菲预测与最高的共识发生的可能性。我们补充这个最可能的情况下，讨论有争议的，极端的情况。基于这些发现，我们得出的产业，政策和未来的研究的影响。(C)2017作者（S）爱思唯尔公司出版
Additive manufacturing (colloquially: 3D printing) is a highly discussed topic. Previous research has argued that this technology not only has profound effects on manufacturing businesses but also on society, which demands new corporate strategies and policies alike. Thus, the development of reliable future scenarios is key for strategic planning and decision making as well as for future research. Dedicated academic studies in this field remain scarce. We present the results of an extensive Delphi survey on the future of additive manufacturing with a focus on its economic and societal implications in 2030. Via an initial round of extensive qualitative interviews and a Delphi-based analysis of 3510 quantitative estimations and 1172 qualitative comments from 65 experts, we were able to develop and validate 18 projections that were then clustered into a scenario for the most probable future. The scenario is built on the six Delphi projections with the highest consensus on the likelihood of occurrence. We complement this most probable scenario with a discussion on controversial, extreme scenarios. Based on these findings we derive implications for industry, policy, and future research. (C) 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc.