Development and validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction model for Japanese: the Hisayama study
Development and validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction model for Japanese: the Hisayama study
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/hr.2009.161
复制
发表时间：
2009-12-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Kiyohara, Yutaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arima, Hisatomi;Yonemoto, Koji;Kiyohara, Yutaka
本文的目的是开发一种新的心血管疾病风险预测模型，并验证其在日本普通人群中的表现。Hisayama研究是一项基于人群的前瞻性队列研究。共有2634名40岁或以上的参与者接受了14年的心血管疾病事件（中风和冠心病（心肌梗死，冠状动脉血运重建和心源性猝死））随访。我们使用随机三分之二（推导队列，n=1756）中的数据来开发一个新的风险预测模型，然后对该模型进行测试，以比较剩余三分之一（验证队列，n=878）中的观察结果和预测结果。一个多变量的心血管风险预测模型，包括年龄，性别，收缩压，糖尿病，低密度脂蛋白胆固醇，高密度脂蛋白胆固醇和吸烟。我们评估了模型在验证队列中预测个体心血管事件的性能。风险预测模型显示出良好的区分度（c-统计量=0.81; 95%置信区间，0.77 - 0.86）和校准（Hosmer-Lemeshow chi（2）-统计量6.46; P-0.60）。同时还介绍了一种基于心血管风险预测模型的简单风险评分表。我们在日本普通人群中开发并验证了一种新的心血管风险预测模型。风险预测模型将为估计心血管疾病的绝对风险和处理个体风险因素提供有用的指导。高血压研究（2009）32，1119-1122; doi：10.1038/hr.2009.161; 2009年9月18日在线发表
The objective of this paper is to develop a new risk prediction model of cardiovascular disease and to validate its performance in a general population of Japanese. The Hisayama study is a population-based prospective cohort study. A total of 2634 participants aged 40 years or older were followed up for 14 years for incident cardiovascular disease (stroke and coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization and sudden cardiac death)). We used data among a random two-thirds (the derivation cohort, n=1756) to develop a new risk prediction model that was then tested to compare observed and predicted outcomes in the remaining one-third (the validation cohort, n=878). A multivariable cardiovascular risk prediction model was developed that incorporated age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and smoking. We assessed the performance of the model for predicting individual cardiovascular event among the validation cohort. The risk prediction model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic=0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 0.86) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2)-statistic 6.46; P-0.60). A simple risk score sheet based on the cardiovascular risk prediction model was also presented. We developed and validated a new cardiovascular risk prediction model in a general population of Japanese. The risk prediction model would provide a useful guide to estimate absolute risk of cardiovascular disease and to treat individual risk factors. Hypertension Research (2009) 32, 1119-1122; doi: 10.1038/hr.2009.161; published online 18 September 2009