Changing cropland in changing climates: quantifying two decades of global cropland changes
Changing cropland in changing climates: quantifying two decades of global cropland changes
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acca97
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发表时间：
2023-04
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Jennifer Kennedy;G. Hurtt;Xin-Zhong Liang;L. Chini;Lei Ma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jennifer Kennedy;G. Hurtt;Xin-Zhong Liang;L. Chini;Lei Ma
气候变化正在影响全球作物生产力，预计未来农业用地的适宜性将发生重大变化。对不断变化的条件和日益增加的产量变异性的反应可以从改变管理战略到彻底改变土地用途，这可能会产生重大的环境和社会经济影响。然而，在更大的尺度上，农业土地利用变化对气候变化的反应程度尚不清楚。更好地了解这些动态是很重要的，因为土地使用的变化不仅会对粮食安全产生影响，而且会对生态系统健康、生物多样性、碳储存以及区域和全球气候产生影响。在这项研究中，我们结合联合收割机的土地利用产品来自中分辨率成像光谱仪与气候再分析数据从欧洲中心中期天气预报再分析v5分析农田变化之间的对应关系和温度变化和水的可用性从2001年到2018年。虽然气候趋势对土地覆被变化的可变性解释不多，但气温升高、极端高温日数、潜在蒸发量和干旱严重程度与农田损失水平较高有关。这些模式在农田变化较多的地区最为强烈，通常反映了潜在的气候适宜性--在炎热干燥的地区被放大，而在凉爽湿润的地区则相反。在国家范围内，气候反应模式差异很大，反映了社会经济、政治和地理因素的重要性，以及适应战略的差异。这种全球范围的分析并不试图解释当地的变化机制，但确定气候-耕地模式，存在于整体，可能很难在当地尺度上感知。其目的是补充区域研究，为当地观察到的现象提供进一步的背景，并突出需要进一步分析的模式。
Climate change is impacting global crop productivity, and agricultural land suitability is predicted to significantly shift in the future. Responses to changing conditions and increasing yield variability can range from altered management strategies to outright land use conversions that may have significant environmental and socioeconomic ramifications. However, the extent to which agricultural land use changes in response to variations in climate is unclear at larger scales. Improved understanding of these dynamics is important since land use changes will have consequences not only for food security but also for ecosystem health, biodiversity, carbon storage, and regional and global climate. In this study, we combine land use products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with climate reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 to analyze correspondence between changes in cropland and changes in temperature and water availability from 2001 to 2018. While climate trends explained little of the variability in land cover changes, increasing temperature, extreme heat days, potential evaporation, and drought severity were associated with higher levels of cropland loss. These patterns were strongest in regions with more cropland change, and generally reflected underlying climate suitability—they were amplified in hotter and drier regions, and reversed direction in cooler and wetter regions. At national scales, climate response patterns varied significantly, reflecting the importance of socioeconomic, political, and geographic factors, as well as differences in adaptation strategies. This global-scale analysis does not attempt to explain local mechanisms of change but identifies climate-cropland patterns that exist in aggregate and may be hard to perceive at local scales. It is intended to supplement regional studies, providing further context for locally-observed phenomena and highlighting patterns that require further analysis.