Modeling and forecasting trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran until May 13, 2020.
Modeling and forecasting trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran until May 13, 2020.
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DOI：
10.34171/mjiri.34.27
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Rahmani, Fereydoon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ahmadi, Ali;Fadaei, Yasin;Rahmani, Fereydoon
背景：COVID-19是一种新的疾病，伊朗和世界上没有关于这种疾病的准确数据。因此，本研究旨在确定COVID-19在伊朗的流行趋势和预测。方法：这是一项二级数据分析和建模研究。本研究使用了伊朗卫生和医学教育部发布的确诊COVID-19患者的每日报告。使用Gompertz、von Bertalanffy和最小二乘误差（LSE）的流行病预测模型预测2020年4月3日至2020年5月13日的住院病例数。结果如下：von Bertalanffy、Gompertz和LSE对2020年4月3日患者数量的预测，95%置信区间（CI）分别估计为44 200（39 208-53 809）、47 500（38 907-52 640）和48 000（40 000-57 560）。根据von Bertalanffy模型，死亡的COVID-19患者人数估计为3100（2633-3717）人，Gompertz模型估计为3700（2900-4310）人，LSE估计为3850（3200-4580）人。根据Gompertz模型对平流行曲线和病人数进行预测，将预测67000例（61500 ~ 87000）。根据Gompertz和von模型，2020年5月13日至6月1日期间将分别发生7900（6200- 9300）和4620（3930- 5550）例死亡，然后曲线将变平。结论：在这项研究中，估计是基于需要住院的重症患者。如果执法和公共行为干预措施继续保持目前的趋势，2020年5月13日至7月，伊朗的COVID-19疫情将保持平稳。
Background: COVID-19 is a new disease and precise data are not available about this illness in Iran and in the world. Thus, this study aimed to determine the epidemic trend and prediction of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: This was a secondary data analysis and modeling study. The daily reports of definitive COVID-19 patients released by Iran Ministry of Health and Medical Education were used in this study. Epidemic projection models of Gompertz, von Bertalanffy, and least squared error (LSE) with percentage error were used to predict the number of hospitalization cases from April 3, 2020 until May 13, 2020. Results: The prediction of the number of patients on April 3, 2020 by von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and LSE, with 95% confidence interval (CI), were estimated at 44 200 (39 208-53 809), 47 500 (38 907-52 640), and 48 000 (40 000-57 560), respectively. The number of deceased COVID-19 patients was also estimated to be 3100 (2633-3717) individuals by the von Bertalanffy model, 3700 (2900-4310) by Gompertz's model, and 3850 (3200-4580) by LSE. Making predictions about the flat epidemic curve and number of patients based on Gompertz model, will project 67 000 (61 500-87 000) cases. Based on Gompertz and von models, 7900 (6200- 9300) and 4620 (3930- 5550) deaths will occur from May 13 to June 1, 2020, respectively, and then the curve will flatten. Conclusion: In this study, estimations were made based on severely ill patients who were in need of hospitalization. If enforcement and public behavior interventions continue with current trends, the COVID-19 epidemic will be flat from May 13 until July, 2020 in Iran.