Brexit and the 2017 UK General Election
Brexit and the 2017 UK General Election
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DOI：
10.1111/jcms.12751
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Hobolt, Sara B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hobolt, Sara B.
2017年英国大选是在英国和欧洲政治史上最重要的政治事件之一：英国选民公投决定退出欧盟（EU）不到一年后举行的。提前选举旨在加强保守党政府在英国-欧盟脱欧谈判中的地位，以及首相特蕾莎·梅在党内和议会中的地位，结果却削弱了保守党少数派政府。鉴于选举前的重大政治事件，可以预见，选举可能会导致新的投票行为模式。然而，令人惊讶的是，2017年大选见证了英国多党政治的衰落，尽管英国脱欧跨越了党派界限。在英国脱欧问题上立场最一致的政党--英国独立党（UKIP）的“硬脱欧”方针，以及亲欧盟的自由民主党和绿党的第二次公投承诺--都失去了选票。相比之下，承诺尊重公投结果但在脱欧后英国与欧盟关系的性质上内部分歧严重的两个主要政党，在1970年以来的任何选举中获得了最大的合并投票份额。英国脱欧辩论期间的选举如何导致英国两党政治的加强？这一结果是否表明选民们正在团结起来支持离开欧盟的决定？这次选举的结果如何影响正在进行的英国脱欧谈判？这些问题在这方面的贡献进行审查。我认为，尽管两大政党在英国脱欧问题上表面上达成了共识，但公众--以及议员和政党--仍然像以往一样存在分歧。对英国选举研究（BES）个人层面数据的分析表明，虽然传统的经济左右翼价值观仍然是英国政治中选举行为的主要驱动力，但在英国退欧公投中明显的其他关键政治断层线也出现在这次选举中：年轻的、进步的和受过大学教育的选民涌向工党，而保守党的选民基础明显更老，社会更保守。此外，脱欧公投本身对投票选择有独立影响，因为保守党吸引了更多的脱欧选民，并从英国独立党的崩溃中受益，而留欧选民更有可能投票给工党。因此，这篇文章的主要结论是，虽然2017年的选举导致了两党政治的复苏，但两党政治的基础是沿着经典的
The 2017 UK General Election came less than a year after one of the most significant political events in recent British and European politics history: the referendum decision of British voters to exit the European Union (EU). The snap election that was meant to strengthen the Conservative government's hand in the UK-EU Brexit negotiations, and Prime Minister Theresa May's position within her party and in parliament, resulted instead in a diminished Conservative minority government. Given the major political event that preceded the election, it was foreseeable that it might result in new patterns of voting behaviour. What was surprising, however, is that the 2017 election saw the decline of multi-party politics in Britain, despite the Brexit divide cutting across party lines. The parties that were most united in offering distinct positions on Brexit-the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) with its' hard Brexit'approach and the pro-EU Liberal Democrats and Greens with their promise of a second referendum-all lost votes. In contrast, the two major parties, that promised to honour the referendum result but were deeply internally divided on the nature of post-Brexit UK-EU relations, were rewarded with the largest combined vote share in any election since 1970. How did an election in the midst of the Brexit debate lead to the strengthening of two-party politics in Britain? Was this outcome a signal that voters were uniting behind the decision to leave the European Union? And, how did the outcome of this election affect the ongoing Brexit negotiations?These questions are examined in this contribution. I argue that despite the ostensible consensus on Brexit by the two major parties, the public-alongside parliamentarians and political parties-remained as divided as ever. An analysis of individual-level data from the British Election Study (BES) shows that while traditional economic left-right values continued to be the main driver of electoral behaviour in British politics, other key political fault lines that were apparent in the Brexit referendum were also present in this election: the younger, progressive and degree-educated voters flocked to Labour, whereas the Conservative voter base was significantly older and more socially conservative. Moreover, the Brexit vote itself had an independent effect on vote choice, as the Conservative Party attracted more Leave voters and benefited from the collapse of UKIP, whereas Remain voters were more likely to vote for the Labour Party. The main conclusion of this contribution is therefore that while the 2017 election resulted in the resurgence of two-party politics based on contestation along the classic