Optimal tracking and testing of US and Canadian herds for BSE: A value-of-information (VOI) approach
Optimal tracking and testing of US and Canadian herds for BSE: A value-of-information (VOI) approach
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00648.x
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发表时间：
2005-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Sahu, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cox, LA;Popken, DA;Sahu, R
美国农业部 (USDA) 对在美国屠宰的一部分牛进行牛海绵状脑炎 (BSE) 检测。在检测时了解牛的来源（美国与加拿大）可以根据检测呈阳性的牛的来源制定新的检测或监测政策。例如，如果一头加拿大牛的疯牛病检测呈阳性，而美国原产的牛没有检测呈阳性，那么美国可以对加拿大牛进行更严格的检测。本文阐述了信息价值 (VOI) 框架的应用，以量化和比较美国实施牛源追踪与不实施追踪的潜在经济成本。如果跟踪计划信息能够减少未来出口和国内市场的损失，并减少安抚或赢回客户所需的未来测试成本，那么该信息的潜在经济价值预计将超过其成本五倍以上。敏感性分析表明，这一结论对于许多技术、科学和市场不确定性来说有些稳健，包括美国和/或加拿大目前疯牛病的流行情况以及消费者对美国和/或加拿大未来可能发现疯牛病的可能反应。事实上，跟踪信息的潜在价值足以证明定位和跟踪已经在美国的加拿大牛是合理的，只要这可以以合理的成本完成。如果积极的跟踪和测试能够赢回失去的出口，那么跟踪计划的 VOI 可能会增加到每年超过 5 亿美元。
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) tests a subset of cattle slaughtered in the United States for bovine spongiform encephalitis (BSE). Knowing the origin of cattle (U.S. vs. Canadian) at testing could enable new testing or surveillance policies based on the origin of cattle testing positive. For example, if a Canadian cow tests positive for BSE, while no U.S. origin cattle do, the United States could subject Canadian cattle to more stringent testing. This article illustrates the application of a value-of-information (VOI) framework to quantify and compare potential economic costs to the United States of implementing tracking cattle origins to the costs of not doing so. The potential economic value of information from a tracking program is estimated to exceed its costs by more than five-fold if such information can reduce future losses in export and domestic markets and reduce future testing costs required to reassure or win back customers. Sensitivity analyses indicate that this conclusion is somewhat robust to many technical, scientific, and market uncertainties, including the current prevalence of BSE in the United States and/or Canada and the likely reactions of consumers to possible future discoveries of BSE in the United States and/or Canada. Indeed, the potential value of tracking information is great enough to justify locating and tracking Canadian cattle already in the United States when this can be done for a reasonable cost. If aggressive tracking and testing can win back lost exports, then the VOI of a tracking program may increase to over half a billion dollars per year.