Indirect Damage of Urban Flooding: Investigation of Flood-Induced Traffic Congestion Using Dynamic Modeling
Indirect Damage of Urban Flooding: Investigation of Flood-Induced Traffic Congestion Using Dynamic Modeling
复制标题
城市洪水的间接损害：利用动态模型调查洪水引起的交通拥堵
DOI：
10.3390/w10050622
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Zhang, Shuliang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu, Jingxuan;Dai, Qiang;Zhang, Shuliang
在许多国家，工业化带动了快速城市化。城市洪灾频率的增加是城市地区扩张的后果之一，这可能严重影响城市居民的生产力和生计。因此，研究降雨和城市洪涝对交通拥堵和驾驶员行为的影响具有重要意义。本文提出了一种综合分析城市洪涝灾害对交通拥堵影响的方法。首先，基于暴雨水管理模型(SWMM)和TELAMAC-2D进行洪水模拟，预测洪水的时空分布。其次，利用基于智能体的模型(ABM)对城市洪涝灾害期间的驾驶员行为进行了模拟，建立了车辆跟驰模型。最后，为了研究城市洪涝灾害影响交通拥堵的机理，以面积4.4km2的中国丽水市区为例，研究了洪涝灾害对城市交通的影响。研究发现，对于大多数事件来说，两小时的降雨对五小时内的交通拥堵有一定的影响，其中雨停后的一小时影响最大。此外，10年和20年重现期的降雨量的影响相似且较小，而50年重现期的降雨量影响明显。基于对水文和交通的综合分析，提出的方法和结论有助于减少汛期的交通拥堵，促进城市洪水的早期预警和风险管理，并帮助用户做出明智的出行决定。
In many countries, industrialization has led to rapid urbanization. Increased frequency of urban flooding is one consequence of the expansion of urban areas which can seriously affect the productivity and livelihoods of urban residents. Therefore, it is of vital importance to study the effects of rainfall and urban flooding on traffic congestion and driver behavior. In this study, a comprehensive method to analyze the influence of urban flooding on traffic congestion was developed. First, a flood simulation was conducted to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of flooding based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and TELAMAC-2D. Second, an agent-based model (ABM) was used to simulate driver behavior during a period of urban flooding, and a car-following model was established. Finally, in order to study the mechanisms behind how urban flooding affects traffic congestion, the impact of flooding on urban traffic was investigated based on a case study of the urban area of Lishui, China, covering an area of 4.4 km2. It was found that for most events, two-hour rainfall has a certain impact on traffic congestion over a five-hour period, with the greatest impact during the hour following the cessation of the rain. Furthermore, the effects of rainfall with 10- and 20-year return periods were found to be similar and small, whereas the effects with a 50-year return period were obvious. Based on a combined analysis of hydrology and transportation, the proposed methods and conclusions could help to reduce traffic congestion during flood seasons, to facilitate early warning and risk management of urban flooding, and to assist users in making informed decisions regarding travel.