A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem-wide impacts of reintroductions
A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem-wide impacts of reintroductions
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DOI：
10.1002/eap.1811
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
McDonald-Madden, Eve
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baker, Christopher M.;Bode, Michael;McDonald-Madden, Eve
将一个物种重新引入一个生态系统会对接受者的生态群落产生重大影响。虽然重新引入可以产生惊人的积极结果，但它们也带来了风险;许多善意的保护行动都有令人惊讶和不满意的结果。一系列基于网络的数学方法已经开发出来，以定量预测社区将如何应对管理干预措施。这些方法是基于对哪些物种相互作用以及以何种方式相互作用的有限知识。然而，专家知识并不是完美的，只能到目前为止的模型。幸运的是，其他类型的数据，如丰富的时间序列，往往是可用的，但迄今为止，没有定量的方法存在这些不同的数据类型整合到这些模型，允许更精确的生态系统范围内的预测。在本文中，我们开发的数学方法，联合收割机时间序列数据的多个物种的物种相互作用的知识，我们将其应用到建议在澳大利亚Boostrik国家公园的重新引入。在最近的历史中，由于野生狐狸（Vulpes vulpes）的强烈控制，包括大型滑翔机（Petauroides volans）的局部灭绝，Booth国家公园的物种丰度出现了大幅波动。这些波动可以提供有关系统的信息，这些信息不容易从稳定系统中获得，我们用它们来通知模型，然后我们用这些模型来预测东部quoll（Dasyurus viverrinus）和长鼻potoroo（Potorous tridactylus）重新引入的潜在结果。在公园的保护关注的关键物种之一是东部鬃鸟（Dasyornis brachypterus），我们发现，长鼻potoroo引进将有很小的影响东部鬃鸟人口，而东部quoll引进东部鬃鸟下降的可能性增加，虽然这取决于任何可能的相互作用的强度和形式。
Reintroducing a species to an ecosystem can have significant impacts on the recipient ecological community. Although reintroductions can have striking and positive outcomes, they also carry risks; many well-intentioned conservation actions have had surprising and unsatisfactory outcomes. A range of network-based mathematical methods has been developed to make quantitative predictions of how communities will respond to management interventions. These methods are based on the limited knowledge of which species interact with each other and in what way. However, expert knowledge isn't perfect and can only take models so far. Fortunately, other types of data, such as abundance time series, is often available, but, to date, no quantitative method exists to integrate these various data types into these models, allowing more precise ecosystem-wide predictions. In this paper, we develop mathematical methods that combine time-series data of multiple species with knowledge of species interactions and we apply it to proposed reintroductions at Booderee National Park in Australia. There have been large fluctuations in species abundances at Booderee National Park in recent history, following intense feral fox (Vulpes vulpes) control, including the local extinction of the greater glider (Petauroides volans). These fluctuations can provide information about the system isn't readily obtained from a stable system, and we use them to inform models that we then use to predict potential outcomes of eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) reintroductions. One of the key species of conservation concern in the park is the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus), and we find that long-nosed potoroo introduction would have very little impact on the Eastern Bristlebird population, while the eastern quoll introduction increased the likelihood of Eastern Bristlebird decline, although that depends on the strength and form of any possible interaction.