Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking
Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.2782
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Knight, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gray, L. J.;Woollings, T. J.;Knight, J.
11年的太阳周期信号在12月1月2月（DJF）平均海平面气压（SLP）和大西洋/欧洲阻塞频率进行检查，使用多元线性回归指数代表与太阳周期，火山爆发，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）的变化。之前对1870-2010年（140年;近似13个太阳周期）11年太阳周期信号的研究结果表明，大西洋上空的SLP存在3-4年的滞后信号，这一结果通过对1660-2010年（350年;近似32个太阳周期）更长时间的重建数据集的分析得到证实。早期研究之间的明显差异得到解决，主要是由于响应的滞后性以及冬前和冬末响应之间的差异。对不同冬季月份的分析为两种影响机制提供了支持性证据，一种是通过大气作用，在冬末滞后0-2年达到最大值，另一种是通过混合层海洋作用，在冬初滞后3-4年达到最大值。DJF平均大西洋/欧洲阻塞频率的相应分析显示，在近似1年的滞后，主要来自冬季后期的响应，具有高度的统计意义的信号。DJF阻塞频率的11年太阳信号与ENSO和AMO的其他已知影响进行了比较，发现幅度一样大，具有更大的统计意义区域。
The 11-year solar cycle signal in December-January-February (DJF) averaged mean-sea-level pressure (SLP) and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870-2010 (140 years; approximate to 13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3-4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660-2010 (350 years; approximate to 32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0-2 year lags and one via the mixed-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3-4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic/European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at approximate to 1-year lag that originates primarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.