A TWO-STRAIN TB MODEL WITH MULTIPLE LATENT STAGES
A TWO-STRAIN TB MODEL WITH MULTIPLE LATENT STAGES
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DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2016017
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发表时间：
2016-08-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Kheiri, Hossein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jabbari, Azizeh;Castillo-Chavez, Carlos;Kheiri, Hossein
介绍了一种两株结核病（TB）传播模型，该模型将结核病产生的耐药菌株和潜伏感染类内的长而可变的等待期结合起来。进行数学分析时，通过参数友好的伽玛分布，一个合理的替代使用指数分布的等待期或积分方程，涉及“任意”的分布建模的等待期。当再生数小于1时，该模型支持全局渐近稳定的无病平衡点和地方病平衡点，证明是局部渐近稳定的，或1.a.s.，当基本再现数大于1时。讨论了结核病耐药菌株存在和维持的条件。外源性再感染的可能性被添加，并被证明能够支持多重均衡;这种情况增加了公共卫生专家面临的挑战。我们表明，外源性再感染可能有助于建立有弹性的社区的活动性结核感染的个人，不能消除使用的方法完全基于能力，使控制生殖数略低于1。
A two-strain tuberculosis (TB) transmission model incorporating antibiotic-generated TB resistant strains and long and variable waiting periods within the latently infected class is introduced. The mathematical analysis is carried out when the waiting periods are modeled via parametrically friendly gamma distributions, a reasonable alternative to the use of exponential distributed waiting periods or to integral equations involving "arbitrary" distributions. The model supports a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium when the reproduction number is less than one and an endemic equilibriums, shown to be locally asymptotically stable, or 1.a.s., whenever the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Conditions for the existence and maintenance of TB resistant strains are discussed. The possibility of exogenous re-infection is added and shown to be capable of supporting multiple equilibria; a situation that increases the challenges faced by public health experts. We show that exogenous re-infection may help established resilient communities of actively-TB infected individuals that cannot be eliminated using approaches based exclusively on the ability to bring the control reproductive number just below 1.