Combining genetic, historical and geographical data to reconstruct the dynamics of bioinvasions: application to the cane toad Bufo marinus
Combining genetic, historical and geographical data to reconstruct the dynamics of bioinvasions: application to the cane toad Bufo marinus
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1755-0998.2010.02882.x
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发表时间：
2010-09-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Excoffier, Laurent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Estoup, Arnaud;Baird, Stuart J. E.;Excoffier, Laurent
我们开发了一个空间上明确的生物入侵模型，并使用近似贝叶斯计算（ABC）框架，从遗传（微卫星基因型），历史（首次观察日期）和地理（空间坐标的引进和采样点）信息的组合作出各种推断。我们的方法的目的是区分替代介绍的情况下，估计后验密度的人口统计学相关参数的侵入性过程。使用不同的信息内容（遗传和/或历史数据）的模拟数据集，我们的EQUE-ABC方法的性能进行评估。我们应用我们的方法，最近引进和空间扩张的甘蔗蟾蜍，蟾蜍marinus，在澳大利亚北方。我们发现，至少在甘蔗蟾蜍入侵的背景下，历史数据比遗传数据更翔实的引进方案之间的区别。然而，历史和遗传数据的结合提供了最准确的人口参数估计。对于甘蔗蟾蜍，我们发现了一些证据，一个强大的瓶颈前介绍，一个小的初始数量的创始人个人（约15），一个大的人口增长率（约400%每代），一个标准偏差的扩散距离为19公里每代和高入侵速度在平衡（50公里每年）。我们的方法加强了ABC方法的生物入侵领域的应用，允许统计推断的引进和入侵物种的空间扩展动态使用各种相关的信息来源的组合。
We developed a spatially explicit model of a bioinvasion and used an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework to make various inferences from a combination of genetic (microsatellite genotypes), historical (first observation dates) and geographical (spatial coordinates of introduction and sampled sites) information. Our method aims to discriminate between alternative introduction scenarios and to estimate posterior densities of demographically relevant parameters of the invasive process. The performance of our landscape-ABC method is assessed using simulated data sets differing in their information content (genetic and/or historical data). We apply our methodology to the recent introduction and spatial expansion of the cane toad, Bufo marinus, in northern Australia. We find that, at least in the context of cane toad invasion, historical data are more informative than genetic data for discriminating between introduction scenarios. However, the combination of historical and genetic data provides the most accurate estimates of demographic parameters. For the cane toad, we find some evidence for a strong bottleneck prior to introduction, a small initial number of founder individuals (about 15), a large population growth rate (about 400% per generation), a standard deviation of dispersal distance of 19 km per generation and a high invasion speed at equilibrium (50 km per year). Our approach strengthens the application of the ABC method to the field of bioinvasion by allowing statistical inferences to be made on the introduction and the spatial expansion dynamics of invasive species using a combination of various relevant sources of information.