Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions
Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/biology9030050
复制
发表时间：
2020-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Webb, Glenn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Zhihua;Magal, Pierre;Webb, Glenn
Please try later.
We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model, we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying levels of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics.