Evolution of malaria in Africa for the past 40 years: impact of climatic and human factors.
Evolution of malaria in Africa for the past 40 years: impact of climatic and human factors.
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过去 40 年非洲疟疾的演变：气候和人为因素的影响。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Didier Fontenille
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jean Mouchet;Sylvie Manguin;J. Sircoulon;S. Laventure;O. Faye;Onapa Aw;Pierre Carnevale;J. Julvez;Didier Fontenille
讨论了过去40年来非洲疟疾的不同情况，以评估气候和人为因素对疟疾的影响。自1972年以来，赤道以北的干旱和降雨量减少的情况增多;在非洲东部和南部，由于厄尔尼诺现象，干旱和潮湿的时期交替出现。自1955年以来，人口从1.25亿增加到4.5亿，导致土地耕种和城市化的扩大。在西非和中非的稳定疟疾地区以及马达加斯加海岸，自1955年以来，疟疾流行情况没有改变。然而，在不稳定的疟疾地区，如高原和萨赫勒地区，发生了重大变化。在马达加斯加，疟疾控制计划的停止导致了1987 - 88年的致命流行。1984 - 1985年，斯威士兰也出现了同样的情况。在乌干达，疟疾发病率在高地（1，500 - 1，800米）增加了30倍以上，但其海拔高度的限制尚未超过世纪初的限制。山谷底部的耕作和定居点的扩大在很大程度上是造成这种增加的原因，沿着反常的大雨，助长了1994年的严重流行病。在卢旺达和布隆迪的邻近高地也观察到疟疾的类似增加，自1958年以来，埃塞俄比亚就有疟疾流行的记录。与此相反，在萨赫勒地区（塞内加尔的尼亚耶斯地区），自1972年以来一直遭受干旱，在主要病媒-不吉按蚊-消失后，由于其幼虫繁殖地被种植破坏，地方性疟疾的发病率急剧下降。即使是在1995年这个非常潮湿的年份。一场瘟疫并没有重新侵袭该地区，疟疾也没有增加。在尼日尔的萨赫勒地区也观察到同样的情况。因此，在过去20年中，气温上升0.5摄氏度不能被认为是这些疟疾变化的主要原因，这些变化主要是由于气候、人类和操作因素的综合作用。
Different malarial situations in Africa within the past 40 years are discussed in order to evaluate the impact of climatic and human factors on the disease. North of the equator, more droughts and lower rainfall have been recorded since 1972; and in eastern and southern Africa, there have been alternating dry and wet periods in relation to El Niño. Since 1955, the increase in human population from 125 to 450 million has resulted in both expansion of land cultivation and urbanization. In stable malaria areas of West and Central Africa and on the Madagascar coasts, the endemic situation has not changed since 1955. However, in unstable malaria areas such as the highlands and Sahel significant changes have occurred. In Madagascar, cessation of malaria control programs resulted in the deadly epidemic of 1987-88. The same situation was observed in Swaziland in 1984-85. In Uganda, malaria incidence has increased more than 30 times in the highlands (1,500-1,800 m), but its altitudinal limit has not overcome that of the beginning of the century. Cultivation of valley bottoms and extension of settlements are in large part responsible for this increase, along with abnormally heavy rainfall that favored the severe epidemic of 1994. A similar increase in malaria was observed in neighboring highlands of Rwanda and Burundi, and epidemics have been recorded in Ethiopia since 1958. In contrast, in the Sahel (Niayes region, Senegal), stricken by droughts since 1972, endemic malaria decreased drastically after the disappearance of the main vector, Anopheles funestus, due to the destruction of its larval sites by cultivation. Even during the very wet year of 1995. An funestus did not reinvade the region and malaria did not increase. The same situation was observed in the Sahelian zone of Niger. Therefore, the temperature increase of 0.5 degree C during the last 2 decades cannot be incriminated as a major cause for these malaria changes, which are mainly due to the combination of climatic, human, and operational factors.