Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity
Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity
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DOI：
10.1641/b570306
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发表时间：
2007-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
10.1
通讯作者：
Stockwell, David R. B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Botkin, Daniel B.;Saxe, Henrik;Stockwell, David R. B.
人们对准确预测全球变暖对生物多样性影响的需求不断增长，但目前的预测方法存在局限性。在本文中，我们比较和讨论了四种预测方法的不同用途：（1）单独考虑物种的模型，（2）按栖息地对物种进行分组的生态位理论模型（更具体地说，按物种可以持续存在或确实持续存在的环境条件），（3）大气环流模型和海洋-大气-生物圈耦合模型，以及（4）考虑所有物种或大型物种聚集体的特定面积曲线模型。在概述这些方法的不同用途和局限性之后，我们提出了八项改进预测的主要建议。我们发现更多地利用化石记录和现代遗传学研究将改进预测方法。我们注意到一个第四纪难题：虽然当前的经验和理论生态结果表明许多物种可能面临全球变暖的风险，但令人惊讶的是，在最近的冰河时期，很少有物种灭绝。这一难题的潜在解决方案让我们深入了解更准确、更可靠的预测的要求。我们的八项建议还指出了解决不同问题的建设性协同作用。
The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.